TFM Morning Update 12-03-2024

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning after choppy trade yesterday that saw corn unchanged to slightly lower. Export inspections yesterday were strong with 36.8 mb inspected last week, and 460.5 mb of corn was used for ethanol production for October which was up from the previous month.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed the funds as sellers of corn by 17,186 contracts which lowered their net long position to 97,442 contracts. Funds had held a net short position in corn for the year until early last month.
Some pressure in the corn market may come from good South American weather that is expected to remain beneficial over the next 10 days. Export demand is good, but there is a large number of corn bushels sold to China that have not yet been shipped and could be at risk for cancellation.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex, and the dollar which is trading slightly lower this morning could be lending support. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher, but soybean oil is showing the majority of the gains.
Estimates for Brazilian production are lofty and would be record-breaking if realized with Celeres at 170.8 mmt, StoneX at 170 mmt, and AgroConsult increasing its estimate to 172.2 mmt. Brazilian exports are expected to increase by around 4 mmt.
Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans as of November 26. They sold 13,771 contracts which further increased their net long position to 81,472 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after bouncing off yesterday morning’s lows and ending the day nearly unchanged. The bounce was likely technical as wheat remains very oversold. Export inspections were not particularly supportive at 10.9 mb.
Russia is expected to lower its wheat exports by a larger number than usual as a result of a smaller than expected crop. Officials have approved a wheat export quota of 11 million tons for the second half of the season from Feb 15 to June 30.
Yesterday afternoon’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 7,572 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them net short 59,118 contracts. They sold 1,286 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 30,661 contracts.

Amanda Brill