CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished the session with mild losses after being led lower by selling pressure in the wheat and crude oil markets. The market has traded lower for the past three sessions.
• Corn futures may face increased volatility this week, with December First Notice Day on Friday likely driving activity and money flow amid shortened trading hours following Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday.
• The USDA released weekly export inspections this morning. Last week, US exporters shipped 903,000 mt (35.6 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the marketing year are at 395 mb, up 38% from last year.
• Mexico entered the corn export market with a flash sale, purchasing 454,090 mt (17.9 mb) of corn, split between 364,792 mt (14.4 mb) for the 24/25 marketing year and 89,298 mt (3.5 mb) for 25/26.
• Today’s sharp drop in crude oil prices will continue to pressure ethanol margins, possibly limiting demand. Talk of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East triggered a 3% drop in front-end crude oil prices.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher, supported by soybean meal, while soybean oil slipped in a reversal of the meal-oil spread. This marked the second consecutive higher close for soybeans, though the January contract remains just 12 cents above its low. A slightly drier 15-day forecast for Brazil may have lent support.
• Soybean export inspections totaled 77.2 mb for the week ending November 21, which was the high end of trade expectations. The USDA projects 1.825 bb in exports for 24/25, up 7% from last year.
• In Brazil, AgRural estimates that soybean planting for 24/25 is 86% complete as of last Thursday, compared to 74% last year. Weather has been favorable, though the 15-day forecast is slightly drier.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as soybean sellers, adding 13,165 contracts to their net short position, now at 67,701 contracts as of November 19. Since then, funds are estimated to have sold another 7,000 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago and KC led the wheat complex lower, with weakness likely stemming from reports of much-needed rain in the Black Sea region and a quiet news front in the area, though tensions remain high.
• Sharp declines in Paris milling wheat also contributed to the day’s losses.
• Weekly Export Inspections showed that 361,000 mt of wheat were inspected for export through Nov. 21. The print was near the top end of expectations, putting year to date totals 31% ahead of last year.
• Ukraine’s Ag Ministry stated the country’s total grain harvest declined 3.8% year over year to 53.4 mmt. Of this total, 22.4 mmt is wheat, which is just under the 22.5 mmt harvested last year.
• Russia is expected to export a total of 55-60 mmt of grain for this season that began July 1. This is down from the 72 mmt total the country exported last year, which included 54.1 mmt of wheat.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed today with the second month contract dropping 6 cents to $18.41. More than 1,000 contracts traded in December.
• While spot whey closed unchanged on no loads traded, spot cheese did bounce 2 cents today to close at $1.6675/lb.
• Class IV futures were mostly unchanged, but February fell 35 cents while March gave back 13 cents from Friday’s close.
• Spot butter fell 2.75 cents to move just above the $2.50/lb mark. Spot powder was up 0.75 cents.
• Today’s Cold Storage report had cheese stocks down 8.0% YoY while butter stocks were up 11% from October 2023.

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Author

John Heinberg