TFM Midday Update 11-20-2024

CORN

The corn market is trading near session highs at midday after coming off its earlier lows. The December contract is gaining on the March as December options expiration nears on Friday. With First Notice Day next week, processors and exporters seek to keep supply lines full.
The EIA reported ethanol production for the week ending November 15 at 1.11 million barrels/day, right in line with expectations. Stocks were 22.563 million barrels, above expectations and the highest since late September.
Managed funds were light sellers in the corn market Tuesday, selling an estimated 2,000 contracts, which reduced their estimated net long position slightly to 111,000 contracts.

Soybeans continue to extend Tuesday’s losses, pressured by a 2.5% drop in soybean oil, which broke nearby support while tracking sharp declines in Malaysian palm oil. Expectations for a large South American soybean crop remain a bearish factor.
The USDA reported 428,200 mt of soybean export sales for 24/25, including 202,000 mt to China and 226,200 mt to unknown destinations.
Abiove forecasts Brazil’s 2025 soybean crop at 167.7 mmt, up 14.4 mmt from last year and just below the USDA’s 169 mmt estimate. Exports are projected at 104.1 mmt, slightly under the USDA’s 105 mmt forecast.
China’s October US soybean imports surged to 541,434 mt, nearly doubling last year, as buyers accelerated purchases amid trade tension concerns. Imports from Brazil totaled 8.09 mmt, maintaining its position as China’s top supplier.
Managed funds sold an estimated 4,000 contracts of soybeans in Tuesday’s session, bringing their net estimated short position to 58,000 contracts.

The wheat complex is trading higher across the board and near session highs at midday as it rebounds from overnight losses in choppy trade.
Soft-wheat exports from the EU are down 31% year over year for the season as of Nov. 17. Total exports were 8.79 mmt, down from 12.7 mmt last year, according to the European Commission.
Improved US winter wheat ratings, the highest in years after recent rains, and increased Argentine and Australian exports continue to weigh on prices.
Managed funds buying an estimated 1,000 Chicago wheat futures Tuesday, bringing their estimated net short to 44,000 contracts. Across all wheat classes, their short position totals a record estimated 200,000 contracts.

Scott Masters