CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A strong move higher in wheat futures and a drop from the near-term peak in the US dollar supported corn futures with some follow through buying after Friday’s positive close.
• This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed 821,000 mt (32.3 mb) of corn shipped last week, near the top of expectations. Year-to-date shipments are 9.021 mmt, up 32% from last year.
• The US Dollar Index eased off its highs today, signaling a potential near-term top. A potential correction could be friendly for commodity markets.
• The corn market may face additional volatility ahead of Thanksgiving as December options expire this Friday, followed by First Notice Day next week, which could drive increased money flow and trade activity.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher, led by front months on strong demand. Flash sales were reported this morning, and the USDA noted a large NOPA crush number Friday. Seasonal trends between Thanksgiving and New Year may also be driving fund activity. Both meal and oil finished higher.
• The USDA announced fresh export sales of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil for the 24/25 marketing year. Reported sales include 261,264 mt of soybeans to Mexico, 135,000 mt of meal to the Philippines, and 30,000 mt of oil to India.
• Weekly USDA Export Inspections showed 79.6 mb of soybeans inspected for export last week, as expected. Year-to-date inspections are 9% ahead of last year.
• According to AgRural, 80% of Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop was planted as of last Thursday, significantly ahead of the 67% pace the previous year and the five-year average of 68%, which is impressive given the slow start to year.
• Reports suggest China plans to reduce its export tax rebate on used cooking oil, a move that could limit US imports of the product for biofuel production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit gains across all classes, fueled by escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and a weaker US Dollar Index. Russia launched attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid, while reports suggest the US has approved Ukraine’s use of longer-range missiles against Russia.
• Weekly wheat inspections reached 7.2 mb, bringing 24/25 totals to 379 mb, up 31% year-over-year and ahead of the USDA’s pace to reach its projected 825 mb in annual exports, a 17% increase over last year.
• Chinese customs data shows October wheat imports at 220,000 mt, down 66.2% year-over-year, but year-to-date imports are up 1.2% to 10.96 mmt.
• Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated managed funds sold 14,500 Chicago, 11,000 Kansas City, and 5,000 Minneapolis wheat contracts, pushing their combined short position to 93,000 contracts — the largest in two months.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The Class III market was able to find some additional support on Monday thanks to the spot trade session for cheese.
• Spot cheese saw blocks improve half a cent while barrels gained 5 cents on the day. The block/barrel average now sits at $1.71625/lb.
• Spot whey pulled back from the recent high, losing 1.50 cents to close at $0.64/lb.
• Class IV was on the quieter side. December futures lost 8 cents to close under the $21.00 level at $20.97.
• Spot butter lost 4.50 cents today to close at $2.5850/lb while powder was unchanged at $1.40/lb.
• This week will be the release of the October Milk Production report and November’s last Global Dairy Trade Auction Event.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg