TFM Morning Update 11-18-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and has faded from higher prices overnight. Cash markets and basis levels are indicating that corn demand is higher than amounts being sold by farmers which should cause prices to increase.
In Brazil, CONAB released its new estimates for grain production last week and it sees planted acreage falling very slightly by 9k hectares, but production increasing to 119.81 mmt thanks to an increase in yield expectations.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying a large amount of corn, 87,946 contracts as of November 12, which left them net long 109,989 contracts. Funds have not been this long since March of 2023.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have faded from overnight highs that saw prices up to 6 cents higher. Palm oil has begun the week with sharp losses that have bled into soybean oil and are weighing on soybean prices. Soybean meal is trading higher.
On Friday, the NOPA crush report showed that 200 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in October which was 3.2 mb above expectations. Soybean oil stocks came in below expectations. The large crush numbers have created an excess amount of soybean meal which has caused the lower prices.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of November 12 by 15,576 contracts which still leaves them net short 54,536 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and seem to have put in a low last Thursday as futures had gotten very oversold. US winter wheat is moving into dormancy so rainfall in the Southern Plains is no longer as helpful.
In Russia, farmers had only harvested 124.3 mmt of grains as of November 1 which compares to 141 mmt at the same time last year. The crop had been harvested over 95% of sown area which is about the same as last year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 14,526 contracts leaving them net short 45,307 contracts. In KC wheat, funds sold 11,018 contracts leaving them short 25,098 contracts.

Amanda Brill