TFM Morning Update 11-08-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of the WASDE report which will be released at 11 central. Prices have been primarily supported by good recent export sales, but may see pressure from large ending stock numbers.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales over 108.9 mb which put total commitments at 1.04 billion bushels and is well ahead of last year’s pace. The recent increase in export sales are likely due to other countries stocking up before potential tariffs.
In Argentina, 37.2% of the corn crop is now reportedly planted which compares to 34.5% last year. Notably, farmers have planted less corn after last year’s leaf hopper plague with only 6.3 million hectares to be planted compared to 7.9 million last year.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower today after big gains yesterday that brought prices up to the 50-day moving average but have not been quite able to break through yet. If yields are reduced in today’s report it could cause prices to rally further.
Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher this morning as both products continue their recent trend. Soybean oil gained over 4% yesterday as trade anticipates tariffs on used Chinese cooking oil. The increase in crush has left us with a glut of bean meal.
Estimates for Today’s WASDE report see soybean ending stocks falling by 15 mb to 535 mb and the average soybean yield falling to 52.9 bpa from 53.1 bpa in last months estimate. World ending stocks are expected to be slightly lowered.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago trading slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis are lower. Overall, wheat has been in a very tight trading range over the past month.
Wheat production seems to be struggling globally as StoneX has just revised their estimate for the Brazilian wheat crop to 7.5 mmt from 7.9 mmt the previous month. The Russian wheat crop is expected to be smaller as well, and wheat conditions in the US are poor.
Estimates for Today’s WASDE report see wheat US ending stocks rising slightly to 813 mb and world ending stocks falling slightly from last month’s estimate. Exports are not expected to be adjusted and there should be few changes overall.

Amanda Brill