CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures faded off early session highs to finish mixed on the day with December corn holding light gains. This week brings a lot of information and possible instability into the markets. The combination of the US Presidential election, possible Fed interest rate cut and USDA baseline projections on Thursday and USDA report on Friday will likely keep the market extremely volatile.
• The USDA released weekly corn export inspections during the session. Last week, US shipped 779,000 mt (30.7 mb) of corn, which was at the lower end of expectations. Total inspections are up 34% year-over-year and running above the necessary pace to reach USDA projections.
• The USDA announced two flash sales of corn before the daily session this morning. Mexico bought 150,000 mt (5.9 mb) and Unknown destinations bought 120,000 mt (4.7 mb) of corn for delivery during the current marketing year.
• After the market works through the volatility of this week, the historical trend in December corn futures is soft going into the Thanksgiving Day and the “First Notice Day” time windows. This time frame is when basis contracts and stored bushels will likely need to be priced or rolled to deferred months. That action likely will limit the market’s upside potential.
• Managed Money positioning has continued to reduce their short position in the corn market. As of October 29, Managed funds held a net short position of 17,703 contracts of corn, reducing the position by 53,796 contracts. This is the smallest net short position by the managed funds for the 2024 calendar year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The soybean complex closed the day mixed, with soybeans settling well off their highs, weighed down by profit-taking in soybean oil, which closed sharply lower but well off its lows. Meanwhile, soybean meal likely saw some short covering and small speculative buying from the recent downtrend and massive fund liquidation to close higher on the day.
• Export activity remains solid this year. This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Although weekly export inspections for the period ending Oct. 31 came in lower at 2.159 million metric tons, total soybean export inspections are at 12.8 million metric tons, up 4% from last year.
• The USDA reported a total of 186.5 million bushels of soybeans crushed in September, marking a 6.7% increase from last year and a record high for the month. Soybean oil stocks came in below expectations and at the lowest month-end level in over 10 years, at just over 1.5 billion pounds.
• Brazilian ag consulting firm Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazil’s 24/25 soybean crop is 52.9% planted, compared to 50.6% at the same time last year. In the same vein, AgRural also reported that Brazil’s soybean planting pace has advanced, reaching 54% complete, an 18% advance from the week prior.
• The Commitment of Traders report released on Friday by the CFTC showed that managed funds sold 12,652 soybean futures contracts, expanding their net short position to 72,226 contracts. The report also showed that managed funds sold a jaw dropping 43,550 contracts of soybean meal, bringing their net long position down to just about 9,000 contracts. This massive sell off in meal could explain some of today’s price action.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago wheat down in all but the December contract, while Kansas City and Minneapolis futures posted small gains. The US Dollar Index was modestly lower at the grains’ close, but a 2.00 – 3.25 euro decline in Matif wheat futures likely pressured the US market.
• Wheat and the broader grain complex are awaiting several key pieces of potentially market-moving news this week. First is tomorrow’s US presidential election, which may increase market volatility regardless of the outcome. Second is the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to issue a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Finally, on Friday, traders will receive the USDA’s monthly WASDE report.
• Weekly wheat export inspections reached 7.1 million bushels, slightly below expectations, but total 24/25 inspections have now reached 358 million bushels, up 35% from last year. Inspections continue to exceed the USDA’s estimated pace for the year, with the USDA projecting 24/25 exports to reach 825 mb, a 17% increase over last year.
• According to IKAR, Russia’s wheat export values ended last week at $232 per mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week but still below the suggested November price floor of $245. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 1.2 million metric tons of grain last week, with wheat accounting for 94% of that total.
• Rainfall over the weekend in US HRW wheat areas fell short of expectations; however, storms are currently moving across parts of Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. Over the next 7–10 days, additional precipitation is expected across the central US, with up to three more systems potentially helping to relieve drought conditions in the western and southern Plains.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• December Class III futures closed down 29 cents today at $19.39, more than a 5-month low on the second month continuous chart.
• Spot cheese fell three-quarters of a cent to close at $1.8450/lb while spot whey was unchanged from Friday.
• The Class IV market was mostly quiet with only a few contracts trading down from Friday. The most volume was in Q1 2025.
• Spot powder did not move today while butter gained a half cent for a quiet Class IV spot trade.
• The Dairy Products Production Report showed a continued YoY increase in butter production while cheese is right on pace with a year ago for the month of September.

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Author

Brandon Doherty