CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market ended October on a quiet note, with light selling pressure in the December contract and moderate buying interest in deferred contracts. Support came from strong export sales totals for the third consecutive week.
• The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning before the main trading session. Last week, new corn sales were reported at 92.2 mb (2.342 mmt) for the current marketing year, which was within expectations and marked the third week in a row of corn sales exceeding 2.0 mmt.
• The Corn Belt saw beneficial rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday. Drought monitor maps reflect extremely dry conditions, with 81% of corn acres affected by some level of drought—the highest percentage since 2012. Despite the dry fall, there is little correlation between fall drought conditions and harvest potential for the following growing season.
• The dry conditions have contributed to one of the fastest harvest paces in the past decade. This harvest pressure has and will continue to limit corn prices going into November as producers market or store this year’s harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended higher for the second consecutive day, supported by strong export sales. With today being First Notice Day, the lack of significant deliveries bolstered the November contract. Despite the report of a flash sale, soybean meal continued its downward trend, while soybean oil closed higher.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 150,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. There have been multiple flash sales of soybeans recently, but it is unknown whether export demand will maintain at this pace after the election.
• Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 83.5 million bushels of soybean exports for the week ending October 24. This was towards the upper end of trade estimates but down slightly from the previous week. Last week’s export shipments of 89.8 mb were well above the 34.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.
• In Brazil, soybean exports are expected to reach 4.58 mmt for October. Weather conditions have become significantly more favorable for planting, allowing progress to catch up quickly from earlier delays. Estimates for total production are as high as 169 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted modest losses across the board today, likely due to storms moving across the central US. Another system is expected to pass through this weekend, further easing drought conditions; however, this data won’t be reflected until next week’s drought monitor is released. Another factor was a lower close in Paris milling wheat futures, which U.S. contracts have been tracking recently.
• The USDA reported an increase of 15.1 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 9.0 mb fell under the 15.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. However, total commitments have reached 496 mb, which is up 19% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of October 29, about 62% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, which is an increase of 4% from the week prior. Drought in spring wheat production areas also expanded from 3% from last week to 40%.
• Russian wheat remains competitively priced in the export market, which may keep a lid on US prices. Reportedly, Russian wheat is being offered at $230 – $235 per metric ton, not only below last week’s $237 but also under the suggested price floor from earlier in the month.
• Ukraine’s agriculture minister announced that the nation may implement minimum grain export prices starting in December. This move aims to reduce “price distortions” caused by the war with Russia. Originally, the plan was set for August but was delayed due to legislative changes. It will impact wheat, corn, soybeans, sunflower oil, and other commodities.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese fell 5.75 cents today to $1.85/lb, with blocks and barrels down 5.00 and 6.50 cents, respectively. Spot whey was unchanged.
• Class III futures hung in pretty well considering the break in cheese, but most did see losses with the second month December down 21 cents.
• Spot butter was up slightly while powder was down 0.75 cents to make for a quiet Class IV spot traded.
• Class IV futures were mixed with mostly slight moves from Wednesday’s close. December was unchanged at $21.20.

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Author

Brandon Doherty