TFM Midday Update 10-28-2024

CORN

December corn is currently trading at the upper end of its rather tight 3 ¼ cent range as it garners support from fresh export sales while being weighed down by lower soybeans and wheat.
This morning the USDA reported new private export sales totaling 244,000 metric tons for the 24/25 marketing year, of which 124,000 mt is to be delivered to Japan, with 120,000 mt for delivery to unknown destinations.
The USDA Ag Attache estimates Argentina’s 24/25 corn crop at 48 million metric tons, 2.5 mmt less than last year due largely to a decrease in planted area. They forecast Argentina’s corn exports at 35 mmt.
Friday the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) released its updated Commitment of Traders report, showing that managed funds bought 15.5k corn futures contracts the week of October 16 – 22. This brought their net short position down to 71,499 contracts.

January soybeans are trading near the lower end of their range at midday, pressured by weaker soybean meal and a sharp decline in bean oil, which is down about 150 points at the time of writing. Crude oil is leading bean oil lower, trading nearly $4 lower (5.4%), as Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran targeted only military, not energy, assets.
Friday’s CFTC report indicated that managed funds sold just over 39,000 contracts of soybeans between October 16 – 22, which brought their total net short position to 59,574 soybean contracts.
Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated to be 35.9% planted according to Patria Agronegocios, which is only 3.2% behind last year’s pace of 39.1% planted.

All three classes in the wheat complex are trading lower at midday, as technical selling pressures the market following Friday’s close below the 50-day moving average in the December contracts.
The Ukrainian Ag Ministry reported that the country harvested 45.1 mmt of grain so far. Of that total, 22.3 mmt was wheat, which is 0.5 mmt more than the ministry’s projection of 21.8 mmt.
In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s wheat exports could reach 13.3 mmt for the 24/25 season. The second highest on record, behind only the 21/22 season’s exports 15.4 mmt, if realized.

Scott Masters