TFM Morning Update 10-23-2024

CORN

The corn market trading a penny to two cents lower across the board in a tight two cent range as it consolidates from this week’s rally.
Later today the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production report, in which the trade estimates that production will rise from last week to 1.055 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks also expected to rise to 22.397 million barrels.
According to Anec, Brazil’s corn exports are expected to rise slightly to 6.24 mmt this month, versus 6.22 mmt in its last report.
Managed funds were very active in yesterday’s trade, buying an estimated 13,000 contracts of corn. This brings their estimated net short position to 60,000 corn futures contracts.

Soybeans are lower this morning, giving up almost half of yesterday’s gains, weighed down by weaker soybean meal and oil.
There is market talk that US soybean exporters are in a rush to ship out this year’s soybeans ahead of the US election on fears of potential policy changes. This has helped bring US soybean export premiums to their highest levels in over a year.
Anec reported that it sees Brazil’s soybean exports for the month of October reaching 4.63 mmt, up slightly from is last estimate of 4.34 mmt.
Managed funds were active buyers in yesterday’s trade, buying an estimated 7,000 soybean futures contracts. This brings their estimated net short soybean position to 25,000 contracts.

The wheat complex is lower this morning across all three classes as they reverse yesterday’s gains but still hold above yesterday’s lows.
Ukraine’s ag ministry reported that winter crop planting is ahead of last year at about 5.4 million hectares. Of that total 3.8 million hectares of winter wheat have been planted versus 3.46 million last year at this time.
The EU’s soft wheat exports have dropped 31% year over year as of October 20 for the season that started on July 1, falling to 7.02 mmt from 10.2 mmt last year, according to a report by the European Commission.
Managed funds were buyers in the wheat complex yesterday, purchasing an estimated 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts, which brings their estimated short position in Chicago wheat to 21,000 contracts.

Scott Masters