TFM Midday Update 10-18-2024

CORN

The corn market reversed to trade lower after failing to hold gain above the 50-day moving average in the December contract. While weakness in the wheat market and continued harvest pressure are likely weighing on corn prices, they remain above the key 400 support level.
New export sales as reported by the USDA for the 24/25 marketing year came in at 2,225,700 metric tons for the week ending October 10, with export shipments totaling 501,800 mt. Sales were up 82% from the previous week, and higher than the 4-week average, while shipments were 53% below the previous week and 49% below the 4-week average.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year.
Weekly ethanol production rebounded to 1.042 million barrels per day last week, meeting analysts’ expectations. A total of 105 million bushels of corn was used, maintaining the pace required to meet USDA usage targets.

Soybeans turned lower once traders returned from the morning’s market pause, weighed down by sharply lower soybean oil, which is following lower crude and palm oil. Meal still holds a modest gain.
The USDA released its weekly Export Sales report this morning, showing new soybean sales as of October 10, at 1,702,700 metric tons, with exports of 1,852,700 mt. New sales were up 35% from the prior week and 16% above the 4-week average, while exports ran 9% higher than the previous week and noticeably higher than the 4-week average.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 21,000 mt of soybean oil for delivery to Mexico for the 24/25 marketing year, and 292,800 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, also to be delivered for the 24/25 marketing year.
The Malaysian finance ministry recently reported that it expects lower palm oil prices in the coming year based on higher production due to a higher harvestable area, a better labor market, and favorable weather.

The wheat complex is trading lower at midday led by losses in the Chicago contracts, as forecasts expect much needed rains moving into HRW wheat country this weekend.
In the weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported new wheat sales as of October 10 totaling 504,100 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. This was 16% above the prior week, and 57% above the 4-week average.
Australia’s 24/25 wheat production is projected to rise by 18% to 30.62 million metric tons compared to last year, driven by favorable growing conditions in New South Wales and Western Australia, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Officials in Russia’s Kursk region, the country’s seventh-largest grain producer, have declared a state of emergency due to drought and the failure of winter crops. This highlights the lower production figures that have been reported this season.
A front moving through the central and Southern Plains is expected to bring much needed moisture into the region possibly through Monday, with some areas potentially receiving 1-2 inches of rain.

Scott Masters