TFM Morning Update 10-11-2024

CORN

December corn is quietly trading at the upper end of its tight 2 1/2-cent range as the market consolidates ahead of the USDA’s October WASDE update at 11 a.m. CDT.
In today’s WASDE update, Corn yield is expected to see a slight reduction to 183.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from last month’s estimate. With improved demand and marginally lower production potential, the corn carryout for this marketing year is projected to decrease for the fourth consecutive month, with the average trade estimate at 1.988 billion bushels.
Yesterday’s weekly export sales report, came in within expectations, showing new export sales of 48.1 mb (1.222 mmt) as of October 3. Mexico remains the leading buyer of US corn. Total corn sales have reached 695 mb, marking a 15% increase over last year and ranking as the fifth strongest sales pace for this period in the past decade.
Managed fund activity was rather quiet yesterday, selling an estimated 3,000 corn futures contracts. They are now estimated to be net short 78,000 contracts. After today’s close the CFTC will issue its weekly Commitment of Traders Report with managed funds’ positioning updated as of Tuesday, October 8.

The soybean market, like corn, is currently trading at the upper end of its trading range as it continues to consolidate ahead of today’s WASDE report. Both soybean meal and oil are higher, lending support to soybeans.
Later this morning the USDA will issue updated supply/demand information. Soybean yield is expected to remain largely unchanged from last month at 53.2 bushels per acre, while the carryout for the 24/25 marketing year is anticipated to see a slight reduction to 546 million bushels.
Yesterday’s weekly export sales report showed 46.45 million bushels in new sales for the 24/25 marketing year, which brought total sales to 740 mb, up 4% versus last year. While total sales are ahead of last year, they remain behind the USDA’s current projected pace.
Managed funds were estimated to have sold about 2,000 soybean futures contracts in yesterday’s session as they prepared for today’s WASDE report. They are currently estimated to hold a net short of about 46,000 soybean futures contracts.

The wheat complex is mixed this morning as all three classes trade in relatively tight ranges. The Chicago and KC contracts are following through on recent strength, while Minneapolis consolidates near unchanged.
Traders are anticipating a slight reduction in 24/25 wheat carryout in today’s WASDE report, from 828 mb last month to 821 million, marking the highest ending stocks number in four years if realized.
Wheat export sales came in toward the upper end of expectations in yesterday’s weekly Export Sales report, totaling 15.9 mb for the 24/25 marketing year. Total commitments are running 19% ahead of last year at 443 mb.
Managed funds were rather quiet in the Chicago wheat market in yesterday’s trade, covering an estimated 2,000 contracts of their net short positions. Currently, their net short position is estimated at 22,000 Chicago wheat futures contracts. The CFTC will update current fund positions in this afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report after today’s close.

Scott Masters