CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure in the wheat and soybean markets weighed on corn prices to end the week. December corn still finished the week up 6 ¾ cents but closed 10 cents off the week’s highs as the upward momentum appeared to fade by week’s end.
• The USDA announced a corn export sale on Friday morning. Unknown destinations bought 198,000 mt (7.8 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. The corn export program has supported prices as current sales on the books are running 14% ahead of last year’s levels for this time window.
• The US Dollar Index has traded higher for the fifth consecutive session and is at its highest level since early August. For the week, the US Dollar Index has gained over 2.0 basis points off the recent lows. A stronger dollar plus the rally in corn prices could price US bushels out of the export market versus cheaper global competition.
• A harvest friendly weather forecast looks to help promote a strong pace for both corn and soybean harvest. The selling pressure from freshly harvested bushels will still be a limiting factor in the corn market in the short term.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower, marking the fifth consecutive day of making lower lows as funds resumed selling in response to rainfall in Brazil and forecasts predicting additional moisture over the next two weeks. Although the end of the dockworker strike initially supported prices earlier in the day, the effect was short-lived. Both soybean meal and soybean oil also ended the day lower.
• For the week, November soybeans lost 28 cents, closing at 1037 ¾, while March soybeans fell 24 cents to 1071 ¼. December soybean meal dropped $13.60, settling at $330.50, and December soybean oil gained 1.61 cents, closing at 43.97 cents.
• This morning, a flash sale totaling 116,000 metric tons of soybeans to China was reported for the 24/25 marketing year even though they are on their golden week holiday. Yesterday’s export sales figures were supportive as well with an increase of 53.0 mb for 24/25.
• Forecasts for South America predict significant rainfall in both Brazil and Argentina over the next 15 days. While scattered showers have fallen intermittently, the extremely dry central region of Brazil is expected to receive over an inch of rain, with southern regions expected to get even more.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had a rough close with double-digit losses in both Chicago and Kansas City futures. Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower this session, offering no support to the US market. Additionally, the US Dollar Index saw another significant move higher today; at the time of writing, it is up 0.56 at 102.55, the highest level since August 16. As the dollar rises, it makes US exports less competitive, weighing on prices.
• There are better chances for rain in Ukraine and southern Russia, which may have contributed to the pressure on wheat over the past couple of sessions. However, according to APK-Inform, conditions for planting winter grain in Ukraine remain unfavorable. The lack of rain (and therefore soil moisture) in September is responsible for the poor conditions.
• The US port worker strike has come to an end – at least temporarily. An agreement was reached to increase benefits and wages by 62% over the next six years, and workers have agreed to return immediately. However, details of the agreement still need to be worked out, and the strike could potentially resume in 90 days. On the positive side, this will allow imports and exports at least through harvest and the subsequent holiday season, avoiding disruptions during these key times of year.
• Russia’s agriculture ministry reportedly raised their wheat export tax by 6.6% to 1,328.3 Rubles per mt. However, Russian wheat is still cheap compared to most other origins. This may keep pressure on US futures, and at a minimum, limit upside potential.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wheat in the heart of Argentina’s growing region is showing signs of stress due to dry conditions. Since most of Argentina’s wheat is harvested in November and December, this is a critical time for the crop’s development.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were weaker on the day after cheese fell for an eleventh straight day. November futures lost 44 cents on the day to close at $21.39.
• Spot cheese suffered its largest single-day loss since November 6, 2020, at 11.25 cents to close at $1.95125/lb.
• Spot whey dropped 0.25 cents to close out the week at $0.6050/lb.
• Class IV futures were slightly higher by 4-13 cents with Class IV products trading in the green today.
• Spot butter was able to slow its free fall this week by gaining 0.75 cents heading into the weekend to close at $2.6875/lb.
• Spot powder gained back most of yesterday’s losses to close at $1.3525/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill