TFM Midday Update 09-30-2024

CORN

Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts are mostly warm and dry for the US Corn Belt. This should allow harvest progress to accelerate over the coming weeks.
At midday, corn futures are neutral to slightly lower as traders await the Quarterly Stocks report. But in addition, it is also month and quarter end; this could mean that outside markets may also have some influence today as managed money funds square up their positions.
There is still concern about a potential strike that could affect US ports along the East Coast and Gulf if it begins on Tuesday.
According to SovEcon, Russia’s corn crop is expected to amount to 12 mmt, which would be down 30% from last year. In addition, last week Russia’s ag minister increased the corn export tax by 10%.

Private exporters reported sales of 116,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
Soybean planting in Brazil was said to be slow over the weekend, with very scattered rains across the country. However, there are better chances for solid rain in the second week of the forecast with more frequent showers predicted for the dry areas of central Brazil.
China’s Golden Week holiday begins tomorrow, which could slow down demand as they are not expected to purchase US commodities during this time.
A lower palm oil market this morning is weighing on US soybean oil and soybean futures. However, crude oil is positive at midday, which should offer some support.

It remains relatively dry in the US southern Plains, as well as the west-central Midwest. This could cause some planting delays for the 2025 hard red winter wheat crop.
Currently it is still too dry in the Black Sea region. However, some weather forecasters are predicting that current rains in Europe will move east, bringing relief to the drier areas of Russia.
Russian wheat export values continue to remain cheap at $217 per mt FOB. This may keep a lid on US futures, as US wheat exports remain uncompetitive with Russia.
India’s domestic wheat prices are said to have hit a new high, around the equivalent of $9.20 per bushel, and there continues to be talk that they will need to import wheat this year.

Brandon Doherty