TFM Morning Update 10-01-2024

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower to start the day after rallying yesterday on a bullish Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Dockworkers at ports from Maine all the way to Texas have officially gone on strike which would make imports more expensive but could also effect the export of grains negatively.
Yesterday’s USDA report was bullish for corn showing corn stocks down 93 million bushels from the average trade estimate. On farm stocks fell from 3.026 bb on June 1 to 780 mb on September 1.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed the good to excellent rating falling one point from last week to 64%. 75% of the corn crop is now mature and 21% is harvested which compares to the 5-year average of 18%.

Soybeans are trading lower for the second consecutive day after yesterday’s neutral stocks report that saw a bearish reaction. The dockworker strike may also be having a negative effect on soybean prices today. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
Along with harvest pressure in the US, weather forecasts are still predicting that central Brazil which has been extremely dry will begin seeing rains within the next few weeks. So far, only scattered showers have materialized.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged from a week ago at 64%. 81% of the crop is dropping leaves and 26% is harvested which compares to 13% a week ago and the average of 18%.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher today after yesterday’s grains stocks report turned out to not be as bearish for wheat as trade thought. Adverse global weather has also been behind the recent uptick in prices.
Yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed that wheat stocks as of September 1 were slightly higher than the average trade estimates but was not significant. The report was essentially neutral and the reaction indicated that trade was expecting bearish numbers.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the winter wheat crop as 39% planted which compares to 25% a week ago and on par with the 5-year average. 14% of the crop is emerged which compares to 4% a week ago and the average of 13%.

Amanda Brill