CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures reversed of early session highs as disappointing corn exports sales and upward momentum from short covering limited the upside movement. Corn futures posted the second reversal in the past 3 days, failing around the 419 level on the Dec Chart. Going into Friday trade, Dec corn futures are trading 11 ½ cents higher on the week.
• Weekly corn exports sales were disappointing this week on the USDA’s weekly export sales report. New corn sales last week totaled 535,000 MT (21.1 mb), well below last week and below analyst expectations. With in those sales, Unknown cancelled 156,000 MT (6.1 mb) of sales, weighing on the total. With the week’s sales totals, total accumulated sales are still 17% ahead of last year’s pace.
• For the second straight day, Mexico bought some U.S. corn on a flash export sale announcement.  Mexico added 115,000 MT (4.5 mb) for corn purchase for the current marketing year.
• Money flow has been strong into the commodity space since early September as the potential more friendly monetary policy and interest rate cut has triggered purchasing in the commodity sector.  Grains and other commodities have benefited from this recent rally, but as the month ends, multiple markets seemed to lose upward momentum on Thursday. The next couple sessions may be key for price direction in October.
• Corn harvest continues, and yield results have been trending well above average, the increase of farmer selling, and hedge pressure will likely limit the corn market as we move into October and furthering the harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after 3 consecutive days of gains and the November contract is currently up 29 cents on the week. Export sales were strong for soybeans, but a day of sharply lower trade in the soybean oil complex pressured prices. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today, but soybean oil was the big loser despite big early gains in palm oil futures.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 57.9 mb of soybean sales for 24/25 and was above the average trade estimate. Last week’s export shipments of 19.0 mb were below the 36.4 mb needed each week to mee the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to China, unknown destinations, and the Netherlands.
• The dryness in Brazil has been more bullish for soybeans than for corn, and over the past three days, funds have bought back an estimated 35,000 contracts of soybeans. Meteorologists have said that the La Nina pattern that was expected this summer may see effects pushed into the fall which would be a problem for Brazil.
• Some weakness today may have come from the lack of soybean flash sales to China this week as there had been rumors of a large purchase in the works. The proposed Chinese stimulus package had originally been bullish with an expectation for increased demand for ag products and raw materials from the US, but those exports will need to materialize.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans lost their upward momentum today, and as they faded back so did corn and wheat – all three US wheat futures classes posted losses. The losses in wheat come despite a drop in the US Dollar and a mostly higher close for Matif wheat, which may be more confirmation that US wheat has been following soybeans.
• The USDA reported an increase of 5.8 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.4 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 26.1 mb far exceeded the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. In addition, wheat sales commitments have reached 410 mb which is up 22% from last year.
• Lawmakers are urging the Biden administration to intervene, if necessary, to prevent a port workers’ strike along the eastern US and Gulf coast. This comes on the heels of another strike in Vancouver, Canada. The US strike could reportedly begin on October 1, and both events could affect logistics and transport of grains, which could also impact exports of US commodities.
• Recent rains have alleviated drought conditions in some of the US winter wheat areas. According to the USDA as of September 24, about 50% of US winter wheat acreage is experiencing drought. This is a decline of 8% from the previous week. And with hurricane Helene set to make landfall this evening, more rains may work their way into the southern SRW wheat areas over the next several days.
• According to IKAR, they have lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production to 81.8 mmt from 82.2 previously, which compares to the USDA at 83.0 mmt. In related news, Russia has announced that they will expand their grain exports along the Baltic Sea to reduce dependance on Black Sea shipments. The goal is to boost exports by 50% by the year 2030. A reported 90% of Russian grain exports in 23/24 moved through the Black Sea, with only 2.4% through the Baltic Sea.
• Frost and freezing conditions have become a threat to the wheat crop in southern and southeastern Australia. Reportedly, temperatures hit -2 degrees Celsius (28.4 degrees Fahrenheit) across about 1.2 million hectares of wheat. This equates to roughly 10% of major production and along with dryness in western regions is another blow to the crop. Australian wheat harvest typically begins in November.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot butter dropped another 7 cents today to close at $2.79/lb, its lowest close since April 1st. Powder enters Friday down 0.75 cents on the week.
• This brought heavy selling to Class IV futures, which fell anywhere from 21 to 54 cents between the October 2024 and April 2025 contracts.
• Spot cheese fell for the fifth straight today, dropping 2.875 cents to close at $2.2725/lb while whey gained a quarter cent.
• Class III futures were mixed today and have overall hung in pretty well despite the recent drop in the block/barrel average.
• The August Cold Storage report was in line with the trends of 2024 with cheese stocks down 6.0% YoY while butter stocks are up 11% from August 2023.

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Author

Amanda Brill