CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Upward momentum in the corn market faded on Tuesday as prices lost early session gains to finish with mild losses. December corn futures traded to 418 ¼, the highest price level since late July, early in the session, but active farmer selling, and hedge pressure likely weighed on the market.
• The corn market has rallied 16 cents from yesterday’s low to today’s high, and over 30 cents off the late August low of 385, before softening today. Corn yield results have been strong overall, and producers are undersold on supplies, which will likely limit potential gains in the corn market.
• The USDA released crop ratings and harvest progress numbers late Monday afternoon. The corn crop is still rated at 65% good to excellent, holding firm in ratings during a time that ratings traditionally slide. Corn harvest has moved to 14% complete, up 5% week over week, and 3% over the 5-year average.
• South American weather will remain the focus of the corn and soybean markets in the near future. Hot and dry conditions helped support grain prices in the recent rally. Forecasts are staying on the drier side, but seasonal rains are looking to pick up going into October. Brazil has planted approximately 26% of their first corn crop according to some analyst groups.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after a sharp rally yesterday, and a day of volatile trade that saw prices climb at one point to the highest levels since July 26. The primary source of support has been massive fund buying aimed at reducing their short positions as Brazil’s weather remains dry with a questionable forecast.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report, showing that the good to excellent ratings remained unchanged from last week at 64%, while the trade had expected a slight decline to 63%. 13% of the crop is harvested, compared to 6% a week ago and the 5-year average of 10%. 65% of the crop is dropping leaves, up from 44% a week ago.
• While soybean meal ended the day lower, soybean oil was higher, supported over the past two days by new legislation introduced by the US House and Senate. The legislation would extend a new sustainable aviation tax credit for biofuels and prevent foreign producers from benefitting from it.
• AgRural reported that it estimates Brazil’s soybean planting to be 0.9% complete. While this is higher than last week’s 0.1%, it remains behind last year’s pace of 1.9%. The delay is largely due to hot and dry weather in the key state of Mato Grosso, where farmers are waiting for more favorable conditions expected to develop in early October.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a strong start to the session, all three US wheat classes ended with a negative close. Pressure came from lower trade in Paris milling wheat futures. Additionally, as soybean prices faded well off their daily highs, wheat prices followed suit. It’s also likely that some profit-taking by traders occurred after the recent rally from the August lows.
• According to the USDA’s Crop Progress report, 96% of US spring wheat has been harvested, just ahead of both last year’s pace and the 5-year average of 95%. In addition, 25% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, which is slightly ahead of last year’s 23% and the 24% average. Finally, 4% of winter wheat has emerged, compared to 6% a year ago and the 5% average.
• According to the Russian Agriculture Ministry, the 2024 grain harvest projection may be adjusted, as final estimates from different regions are expected by the end of the week. So far, Russia has collected 105.9 mmt of grain, with 77.7 mmt of that being wheat. Earlier in September, SovEcon forecasted Russian wheat production at 82.9 mmt.
• A port strike in Vancouver, Canada, began today and is expected to severely disrupt grain transport and logistics. Vancouver reportedly handled 52% of Canada’s grain shipments last year. An estimated 100,000 mt of daily crop deliveries will be halted, which comes right as farmers are getting into the thick of harvest.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Hefty losses were seen in the Class III market today with the October and November contracts down 51 and 46 cents, respectively.
• Spot cheese dropped for the third day in a row, closing down 2.75 cents at $2.36750/lb. Spot whey was about the only winner today, closing a quarter-cent to the good.
• October through March futures on the Class IV side faced varying levels of pressure, although volume was light.
• The sharp downturn on butter continued with another 4-cent loss while powder closed a quarter cent lower.

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Author

Brandon Doherty