TFM Midday Update 9-16-2024

CORN

With little fresh news, the corn market is trading back and forth across unchanged, currently at the lower end of its 4 ½ cent range in the December contract.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in corn futures by 44,077 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 132,134 contracts.
Harvest in the southern Midwest is starting to pick up with the dry weather, and early yields are promising in southern Illinois and Indiana. The recent rain from Hurricane Francine may offer some relief to the low Mississippi River levels, but more moisture will be needed to restore them to normal.

The soybean market is seeing choppy back and forth trade at midday after rejecting the day’s initial rally on another flash sale to unknown destinations. Soybean meal and oil are also experiencing choppy trade with meal trading in sympathy with soybeans while oil shakes off initial lows.
This morning the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in soybean futures by 23,495 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 130,601 contracts.
Later today, the NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) will release its monthly crush report. Traders expect August crush at 171.35 million bushels, a 6.3% drop from July, mostly due to idled plants for seasonal maintenance ahead of harvest, but up 6.1% from August 2023. Soybean oil stocks are expected to come in at 1.356 billion pounds, a 9.5% drop from July if realized, but up 8.5% from last year.
Soybean area is expected to increase in Argentina according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to 19m hectares (47 million acres), a 9.8% increase from last year, due to a fear of the leafhoppers that attacked last year’s corn crop.

The wheat complex is trading mostly lower at midday, as it appears to be rejecting trade near 600 in both the December Chicago and KC contracts, with insufficient bullish news to sustain higher price levels. Minneapolis contracts are following suit, though to a lesser degree.
The CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday afternoon, showed that as of Tuesday, September 10, managed funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat futures by 13,227 contracts. This brought their total net short position down to 29,397 contracts.
Russian wheat exports surged in August, reaching 5.15 mmt, a 62% increase from July, according to LSEG agricultural research. This jump was driven by lower supplies from the EU, which were estimated to have decreased by 10 mmt to 124 mmt.
Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export market with low export prices. They are currently reportedly hovering between $216-$218 per metric ton.
Growing dryness in the US southern Plains, parts of Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea region have added support to the wheat market, along with the threat of escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia, which could disrupt wheat shipments.

Scott Masters