CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures rode the coattails of a strong wheat market and a trend of lower ending stocks in the past three WASDE reports, finishing the session with gains. With this strong close, December corn futures ended the week 7 cents higher, marking the market’s third consecutive weekly gain.
• Concerns about weather conditions in Europe and the Black Sea regions, along with the potential geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine War, helped trigger a short-covering rally in the wheat market. The spillover strength also supported corn futures.
• In the last three USDA Crop Production reports, new crop (24/25 marketing year) ending stocks projections have slightly decreased, from 2.102 bb in July to 2.057 bb in the September report. This decline in carryout has occurred despite higher supply and production forecasts, as late-season 23/24 demand has offset gains in US production.
• Weekly export sales for corn were disappointing at 667,000 mt, down nearly 1.2 mmt from the previous week. Such a slowdown in export sales may have been attributed to rising corn prices because of price movement and increased freight costs as Gulf export prices have been increasing with the restricted Mississippi River water levels.
• As harvest nears, rallies may be limited by an increase in producer selling of freshly harvested bushels or Brazilian producers moving stored supplies. It is estimated the Brazilian producers have only sold 53% of their old crop corn, which is behind pace compared to the past couple of marketing years for this time window.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower after a mixed session, with the November contract testing the 50-day moving average but failing to break through for the second time since last week. Notably, on September 6, when November soybeans last failed at the 50-day mark, prices dropped 36 cents over four days. Both soybean meal and oil also ended the session lower.
• For the week, November soybeans gained 1 ¼ cents to 1006 ¼ while March soybean gained 2 ½ cents to 1039. December soybean meal lost $1.50 to $322.90 and December soybean oil lost 0.70 cents to 38.93 cents. Funds likely bought back a good portion of their short position this week despite prices moving just slightly higher.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. China has made multiple new crop soybean purchases this week totaling 232,000 mt and has been an active buyer in general recently.
• Argentina is poised for its largest soybean acreage expansion in 15 years, with planted acres expected to rise by 7.5% compared to last year. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the total planted area is projected to reach 17.7 million hectares (43.7 million acres).
• Brazil has had months of dry weather and much of the upcoming price action will rely on the weather in the country going forward. They are forecast to receive showers in the South, but central Brazil is still forecast to remain dry for another 10 days. With appropriate rains, Brazil would likely produce a new record crop in 2025.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• It was an impressive close for wheat, with double-digit gains across all three classes. While support came from higher Matif wheat prices and a weaker US Dollar Index, much of the jump could be attributed to the “war premium” being factored in. There is talk that President Biden may lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of NATO-allied missiles to strike Russia.
• India has reportedly reduced the total amount of wheat that millers and traders can hold from 3,000 mt to 2,000 mt, in an effort to protect their domestic prices. There is also still talk that India may need to import wheat, which would be bullish.
• As of September 10, the USDA reported that 57% of US winter wheat acres were experiencing drought conditions, up from 52% the previous week. This marks the highest level in a year and may impact winter wheat planting in the southern Plains.
• Ukraine’s National Hydrometeorology Center reports critically low soil moisture levels, with approximately 70% of winter grain planting areas nearly devoid of moisture. This ranks among the worst summer and fall droughts, comparable to those in 2011 and 2015. However, there is still time for rainfall, as winter grains can be sown until early November in southern regions.
• Dry conditions in Argentina continue to pose challenges for the development of their winter wheat crop. Meanwhile, Australia’s outlook is more favorable, as recent rainfall in the east has benefited their wheat crop, with additional rain expected in the same areas next week.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were stronger going into the weekend led by the November contract which improved 22 cents to $23.40.
• Spot cheese has now traded higher or unchanged 11 out of the last 12 sessions. Spot cheese currently sits at $2.38/lb.
• Spot whey gained 1.50 cents to trade over the $0.60/lb for the first time since August 5.
• Class IV futures found some buyers today gaining between 6-21 cents on remaining 2024 futures contracts.
• Spot butter gained back some of yesterday’s losses improving 4.50 cents to $3.13/lb. Powder lost just 0.25 cents to close out the week at $1.3925/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill