TFM Morning Update 09-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning with the December contract trading just above the 50-day moving average as trade squares positions ahead of a potentially friendly WASDE report tomorrow which could see ending stocks lowered for 24/25.
Estimates for today’s weekly ethanol report see production rising from last week at 1.062 million barrels per day while the average estimate for stockpiles is at 23.338m bbl which would compare with 23.354m a week ago.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see ending stocks falling to 2.033 bb from 2.073 bb in last month’s report. The corn yield is expected to be lowered to 182.7 bpa from 183.1 bpa last month.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s large sell off. Funds hold a large net short position and will likely continue to buy back positions lowering their exposure going into tomorrow’s report.
In Brazil, the lack of rain has caused river levels to hit record lows there and in the rest of South America. In addition, water levels on the Mississippi are quite low as well and between the two, there may be shipping issues.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE see ending stocks for 24/25 rising slightly to 568 mb from 560 mb. The increase in ending stocks comes from an anticipated increase in yields to 53.3 bpa from 53.2 bpa last month.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Minneapolis wheat leading the complex higher. Futures have rallied over 50 cents off their lows as exports have picked up significantly.
Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see 24/25 ending stocks for wheat falling to 822 mb from 828 mb last month as a result of the increased export demand. World ending stocks are also expected to be lowered from the August report.
In Russia, IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 2024 wheat crop by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt citing very adverse weather in 3 key growing regions. Wheat export potential was cut by 0.5 mmt to 44 mmt.

Amanda Brill