TFM Morning Update 09-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn ratings at the highest in 6 years for this time of year. December futures have been drifting down towards the 50-day moving average after Friday’s selloff.
Yesterday, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed the corn good to excellent rating falling 1 point to 64% which is not bad considering the recent dry weather. 5% of the crop is reportedly harvested which compares to the 5-year average of 3%.
In Brazil, 15% of the country’s first crop corn planting is complete with most of the progress in the center-southern region. Brazil’s first crop corn typically accounts for 20% of their total corn production.

Soybeans are lower this morning and have taken back nearly all of yesterday’s gains. The November contract is now trading back below its 40-day moving average and is technically overbought. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans were surprisingly unchanged from last week at 65% despite the dry conditions. Trade was expecting 63%. 25% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to 13% last week and 27% a year ago.
In Brazil, the lack of rain has caused river levels to hit record lows there and in the rest of South America. This will likely pose shipments to get backed up and could be supportive for US exports.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as US forecasts remain dry, and there has also been an uptick in export demand lately which could cause the USDA to increase its export forecast on Thursday.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the spring wheat harvest at 85% complete which compared to the trade estimate of 83%, 70% completion a week ago, and the 5-year average of 83%. Winter wheat is now 6% planted which compares to the trade guess of 8% and the 5-year average of 6%.
In Russia, IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 2024 wheat crop by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt citing very adverse weather in 3 key growing regions. Wheat export potential was cut by 0.5 mmt to 44 mmt.

Amanda Brill