TFM Morning Update 09-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is hovering right at the 50-day moving average in the December contract. Last week, futures were set to post big gains on the week, but Friday ended up posting a bearish reversal due to outside macroeconomic factors.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought back 65,697 contracts of corn as of September 3 which reduced their net short position to 176,211 contracts. Funds likely sold additional contracts on Friday that were not counted.
This Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates are calling for a slight decrease in corn ending stocks in the US and a slight decrease in yields.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning following Friday’s major selloff but have still been unable to break back above the 50-day moving average in the November contract. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher which is offering support.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 22,455 contracts of soybeans as of September 3 which reduced their net short position to 154,096 contracts, but funds were estimated to have sold an additional 10,000 contracts on Friday.
Estimates for the upcoming WASDE report see soybean ending stocks rising slightly due to an anticipated increase in US yields. Trade is expecting yield to come in around 53.3 bpa.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat still well off its contract lows and now trading just a hair above its moving average. Stochastics are showing overbought conditions.
While exports have picked up, US wheat is still not competitive with Russian or Ukrainian offers, but has become competitive with the rest of the world. Russia recently estimated its wheat production to be larger which likely made them more competitive.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 13,578 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them net short 42,624 contracts and buying back 4,765 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 27,237 contracts.

Amanda Brill