TFM Midday Update 9-3-2024

CORN

Weekly crop progress ratings will be out this afternoon, delayed due to yesterday’s Labor Day holiday. Expectations are for slight declines in ratings.
The forecast for much of the corn belt looks dry for the next couple of weeks. This may have some impact on the later planted crop. However, there is still anticipation for a record crop.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn harvest is 99.3% complete, and 46.25 mmt of corn have been harvested. Additionally, they estimate that in 2024, 17.1% fewer corn acres will be planted due to leaf hopper disease and drought conditions.
As reported by Ag Rural, the central-northern region of Brazil has planted about 8% of their first corn crop.

The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
Crude oil is sharply lower this morning, potentially due to anticipation of lower domestic and Chinese demand. This is putting some pressure on soybean oil. Also pressuring bean oil, is news that China launched and anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola in response to a Canadian 100% import tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.
Also adding to pressure to vegetable oil markets was a fall in Malaysian palm oil prices by 1.1% on Monday. Additionally, Indian vegetable oil imports declined by 17% in August; India is the world’s number one vegetable oil importer.
According to the EIA, renewable diesel production capacity increased 7% in June to about 4.9 billion gallons annually – that is up 27% on a yearly basis.

According to Australia’s agriculture bureau, ABARES, they increased their estimate of Australia’s wheat production by 2.7 mmt to 31.8 mmt. That is up about 6 mmt from last year and compares to the USDA estimate of 30 mmt.
Paris milling wheat futures appear to have hit some resistance at the 21-day moving average and have traded both sides of unchanged so far today. If September closes lower today, it would end the run of five consecutive higher closes.
According to IKAR and Sov Econ, Russian wheat FOB export values remain cheap at $216 to $220 per mt. These low prices are despite the fact that the Russian wheat crop may be closer to 81-83 mmt, down 11-13 mmt from estimates earlier this season.
Argentina’s wheat condition, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, has improved from 39% good to excellent last week to 44% this week. For reference, the crop was rated just 19% good to excellent at this time last year.

Brandon Doherty