The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buyers returned to the corn market on Thursday as prices pushed to their highest close in over a week. The combination of strength in other grains, First Notice Day on the September contract, and a solid week of new crop export sales triggered a short covering rally as the market closes in on the end of the marketing year and the 3-day Labor Day weekend.
• The USDA released weekly export sales this morning. Old crop sales were light as the marketing year winds down at 90.6 mb (15,300 mt), but new crop sales were just above the range of expectations at 58.8 mb (1.494 mmt).
• Though weather has moved to the back burner for this time of year in the corn market, the current 6 – 14 day window is showing a drier period across the Corn Belt. Even with temperatures cooling down, the trade is still leaning to a large corn crop, but the recent heat and dryness may have trimmed some of the top end off the yields.
• Funds are estimated to still be short about 265,000 corn contracts. With the 3-day weekend, the market is likely seeing some short covering into that window as well as the end of the marketing year on August 30. The 24/25 marketing year begins on September 1.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher with the November contract closing above the 21-day moving average for the first time since mid-July. The most recent weather forecast shows hot and dry conditions in the 8-14 day forecast, which could cause soybeans to see a decline in yields. First Notice Day is also tomorrow which may be impacting prices. Both soybean meal and oil were higher today, but soybean oil led the way with gains of over 3%.
• Today’s export sales report was strong for soybeans. The USDA reported net cancellations of 5.3 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 but an increase of 96.1 mb for 24/25 which was above the range of trade analyst estimates. Last week’s export shipments of 19.9 mb were also above the 19.1 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Germany, and China.
• Yesterday, funds were estimated to have sold approximately 4,000 soybean contracts. Funds currently hold an estimated net short position of about 187,000 soybean contracts, 84,000 soybean oil, and are net even meal. Funds are likely holding a record short position in soybeans at the moment.
• In South America, soybean plantings are about to begin, but conditions are currently dry so there will likely be delays until moisture improves. Mato Grosso and other key soybean producing states have received very little rain over the past few months.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three US wheat classes rebuffed early weakness to finish the session in positive territory. Support came from rallying corn and soybeans and a third consecutive higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. Today’s strength also comes despite another day higher in the US Dollar Index. With First Notice Day tomorrow for September grain contracts, as well as it being the end of the month, it is possible that today’s rally was driven by managed funds squaring positions.
• The USDA showed in its weekly Export Sales report an increase of 19.6 mb in wheat export sales for 24/25 for the week ending August 22, but a decrease of 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week of 21.2 mb exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb. Total wheat sales commitments for the 24/25 marketing year are up 33% from last year at 366 mb, which is well above the USDA’s estimated pace.
• According to the USDA as of August 27, approximately 21% of US spring wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week. Yields remain favorable in North Dakota and Minnesota, with the national harvest now over 50% complete. Additionally, drought conditions in winter wheat areas have increased by 2% from last week to 47%, which could impact the establishment of the soon to be planted winter wheat crop.
• The German grain harvest, according to preliminary government data, is expected to fall 9% year over year due to bad weather. Total grain production this year is estimated at 34.5 mmt, which is below private German farmer’s group DBV’s estimate of 39.3 mmt. Wheat specifically is expected to produce 18.5 mmt, which would be down 15% from a year ago.
• Argus Media is estimating the French soft wheat harvest will total 25.1 mmt, which would be a 27% decline from last year if realized. Additionally, they are projecting that French soft wheat exports outside the European Union will fall 60% to just 4.1 mmt, the lowest total since 2001/2002. This would also result in a loss of about $1.6 billion in export revenue for France.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk finishes the day green with September futures up 1 cent to close at $22.18 and October futures up 18 cents to close at $22.62.
• Spot cheese rebounded today gaining 2.3750 cents to close at $2.12375/lb. Spot whey was also able to gain 0.75 cents today to close at $0.56/lb.
• Spot butter lost 2.75 cents to close at $3.17/lb, while spot butter was able to gain 0.50 cents to close up at $1.31/lb.
• Class IV milk had a slower day of trading with November futures down 4 cents to close at $22.80 and December closed up 14 cents to close at $22.14.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill