TFM Morning Update 08-30-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s lower close but the December contract continues to hover around the $3.90 mark. Prices are 6 cents off of contract lows as trade anticipates large yields.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed record production for the second week of August at 1.071 million barrels per day which compared to the average trade guess of 1.091. Ethanol stocks were nearly unchanged at 23.572m bbl which compared to the trade guess of 23.557.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn exports in a range between 700k and 1,400k tons with and average guess of 1,030k tons. This would compare to 1,410k tons a week ago.

Soybeans are trading higher again this morning in a move that has brought November soybeans back above 10 dollars for the first time since August 12. The November contract is currently set to post a 30 cent gain on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.
The dry 8-14 day forecast has lent the most support to soybeans which could see yields trimmed in areas that don’t see rain, but support has also come from huge export sales yesterday and a lower crop rating earlier this week.
In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. Planting for the next season is expected to begin in September.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and December Chicago wheat is on track for a weekly gain of 22 cents. The strength in wheat is likely coming from higher corn and soybeans.
The Canadian wheat crop is being estimated at 34.4 mmt for 2024 which would be 4.3% above last year’s production according to Statistics Canada. A Bloomberg survey estimated production at 33.8 mmt.
In North Dakota, the quality of spring wheat is a concern due to excessive rains. Poor quality spring wheat will likely be discounted and could pressure the nearby Minneapolis wheat contract.

Amanda Brill