CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buyers stepped back into the corn market to start the week as good weekly export inspections triggered some profit taking in the corn market.
• Weekly export inspections remain strong late into the marketing year. Last week, US exporters shipped 45.9 mb (1.166 mmt) of corn, which was at the high end of expectations. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 1.972 bb, up 38% from the previous year and running ahead of the USDA pace for the marketing year.
• The most watched of the crop tours, the Pro Farmer Crop tour, runs through Wednesday. The tour started in the eastern and western Corn Belt this morning and will work toward the center by Wednesday. Monday’s results will likely be very variable, but totals will improve as the tour moves into the core of the Corn Belt. Final tour numbers will be released on Thursday night.
• Cash markets will likely be the driver of the price action into the end of the month as producers will be likely moving old crop supplies and setting prices on basis contracts. Supplies are typically moved in this window with harvest around the corner. Basis levels will be an indicator of the cash market and the amount of corn movement.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day significantly higher in a reversal from Friday’s poor close that brought November futures to new contract lows. Today, there was support across the grain complex as a result of the 7 to 10-day forecast which showed warm and very dry conditions approaching across the Corn Belt. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher as well.
• Later this afternoon, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and trade is anticipating a decline in crop ratings by 1 to 2 percentage points. The upcoming warm and dry weather could take ratings down further in the coming weeks, but yields are still expected to be near record levels.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 332,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year and 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed managed funds as sellers of soybeans in the week ending August 13. They sold 5,431 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 174,447 contracts. This is near their record short position and funds are estimated to have sold an additional 2,500 contracts since then.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After trading both sides of unchanged, wheat ultimately had a mixed close. September and December Chicago wheat were down slightly, with deferred contracts a little higher. Kansas City futures were marginally higher across the board, but Minneapolis led the way to the downside as spring wheat harvest expands. The relative weakness in wheat today is a bit surprising given the strength of corn and soybeans, and a sharply lower US Dollar. The USD Index today hit the lowest level since January and as of writing is sub the 102 level.
• Weekly wheat export inspections reached 12.8 mb, bringing total inspections for the 24/25 marketing year to 168 mb. This is 26% higher than the same period last year and well ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace of a 15% increase. Total wheat exports for 24/25 are projected at 825 mb.
• Interfax reported that Russia’s wheat yields are 22% behind last year at about 4 mt per hectare (2.47 acres). Even though yields are down versus last year, according to Russia’s ag ministry, overall quality is higher. As of August 14, the country has harvested about 59.8 mmt, 3.2 mt behind last year’s pace.
• According to Egypt’s Supply Minister Sherif Farouk, Egypt’s wheat stocks are ample enough to last over six months, and the country continues to implement its policy of direct wheat purchases. This comes on the heels of its largest ever wheat tender of 3.8 mmt, of which only about 280,000 mt were fulfilled.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• In Monday’s US dairy spot trade, cheese, and whey held unchanged while powder gained a penny and butter added 0.50c.
• Milk futures saw yet another solid day of bidding in the futures trade, taking September Class III up 39c to $22.30 and November Class IV up 11c to $22.04.
• The spot cheese trade took a pause with no movement in the market and no loads traded on Monday.
• The January 2025 Class III milk contract made a new contract high at $19.26, as the 2025 contracts had a solid up day.
• This will be a news-heavy week with a Global Dairy Trade auction Tuesday, a US Milk Production report on Wednesday, and a US Cold Storage report on Friday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty