CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw some buying action on Wednesday as prices consolidated near the top of Monday’s trading range. The current reversal low from Monday remains supportive to the market as a short-term low. Consistent non-threatening weather overall and producer selling are limiting to the upside in corn.
• Weekly ethanol production averaged 1.072 million barrels per day last week. This was up 0.5% from the previous week and up 0.3% from last year, as overall ethanol production remains strong. Total corn used last week was estimated at 106.40 million bushels, which is slightly behind the pace to reach the USDA corn usage target for the marketing year.
• Weekly corn export sales will be announced on Thursday morning. Expectations for old crop sales range from 300,000 – 550,000 mt and new crop sales between 150,000 – 800,000 mt. The old crop marketing year ends on August 31, so the market focus will be on new crop sales and shipment totals.
• Despite the overall sideways trade in the corn market, the National Corn Index has trended lower since the first of August, reflecting producer selling and weaker cash basis as old crop supplies are being priced and moved.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• After making new lows in the overnight session, soybeans ended the day higher breaking a 6-day losing streak. Today’s move higher was likely technical in nature with the market being extremely oversold and prices 54 cents lower so far this month in the November contract. Soybean meal led the way higher while soybean oil was lower.
• Yesterday, there was another daily announcement that two cargoes of new crop soybeans were sold to China as the US export window opens. US soybeans are at a discount to South America’s as Brazilian basis levels have been getting more expensive.
• Yesterday, CONAB raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 147.382 mmt, which was up from 147.337 mmt last month. This estimate is still well below the USDA’s estimate from Monday which has Brazilian soybean production at 153 mmt.
• Forecasts predict rain across the Midwest this week, along with moderate temperatures that should benefit the crops and may continue to put pressure on prices. However, North Dakota has received excessive rain, leading to flooding, while Missouri will be under a flash flood watch overnight.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Following a day of two-sided trade, wheat had a mixed close, with gains in Chicago but small losses in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Bull spreading was noted in Chicago contracts, where the front month attracted more buying interest than deferred contracts. However, this bounce may largely be technical in nature as funds cover some of their short positions. Meanwhile, Paris milling wheat left another small gap on the chart, with September closing at a new near-term low, which could continue to pressure the US wheat market.
• This morning’s CPI data suggested that US inflation is easing, reinforcing the idea that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September. This potential rate cut could impact the US Dollar Index and equity markets, both of which can influence wheat prices.
• As of August 11, European Union soft wheat exports reached 3.1 mmt since the season began on July 1. According to the European Commission, this marks a 22% decline year-on-year, down from 4 mmt during the same period last year.
• Romania’s agriculture minister stated that their 2024 wheat harvest, despite drought challenges, is expected to surpass last year’s by 1 mmt, based on preliminary data. For context, the 2023 Romanian wheat crop totaled 10.6 mmt.
• Scattered rains are expected in the northern Plains through the rest of this week and possibly into next week. This could delay the spring wheat harvest and potentially cause quality concerns if precipitation is heavy. However, spring wheat remains highly rated in both North Dakota and Minnesota, with 81% and 89% rated good to excellent, respectively.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk closed down today after yesterday’s gains with the second month September contract losing 4 cents to close at $21.30.
• Spot cheese continued to push over the $2.00/lb mark gaining another 0.625 cents to close at $2.09625/lb. Whey lost 0.25 cents to close at $0.56/lb.
• Class IV had another day of gains and closed mostly green. The second month contract September gained 8 cents to close at $22.00.
• Spot butter remained unchanged and closed at $3.12/lb while powder gained 1 cent to close at $1.2425/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty