CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling resumed in the corn market, giving back most of Monday’s gains after the USDA WASDE report. The market was pressured by the prospects of record yields, farmer selling, and strong selling in the soybean market
• With the potential record yield per bushel on the table, and reduced acres from last year, total corn production is forecasted to be to be 195 mb below last year’s crop. The key will be demand going forward. While the USDA has added to the demand total for the 24/25 crop, the key stocks-to-use ratio is at 13.9% for next year (up 1.3% YOY), signaling a heavier available corn supply than last marketing year.
• The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn this morning. Mexico stepped into the market and picked up 5.4 mb (137,160 mt) for the new marketing year.
• The weekly Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon pegged 67% of the crop as good to excellent, steady with last week and 1% higher than trade expectations. In terms of maturity, 60% of the crop was in dough stage and 16% was dented, signaling that fresh supplies may soon enter the pipeline. Both these maturity factors were trending ahead of 5-year averages.
• December corn prices have stayed in the trading range that has been in place since late July. A range from 405 on top and 395 on the bottom has held most of the trading activity over the past couple of weeks.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the sixth consecutive day after yesterday’s WASDE report put more pressure on the market and sent the November contract to new contract lows. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed conditions unchanged, and the 7-day forecast is bearish with rain across the Midwest. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• This morning, CONAB raised its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 147.382 mmt, which was up from 147.337 mmt last month.
• Earlier today, the USDA reported private export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This was another new crop sale to China following previous rumors of soybean sales.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans unchanged at 68%, which is 9% higher than the rating at this time last year. 91% of the crop is blooming which compares to 86% last week and the 5-year average of 90%. 72% of the crop is setting pods.
• Yesterday’s WASDE report was bearish for soybeans on nearly all fronts. The yield was raised above the average trade guess to 53.2 bpa from 52.0 bpa last month. Additionally, acreage was increased, production estimates rose, and new crop ending stocks were increased to 560 mb from last month’s 435 mb. Argentinian production was lowered slightly, but Brazilian production was unchanged.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower in the winter contracts, led down by Chicago, while spring wheat saw a mixed close. The decline was driven by further weakness in Matif wheat futures, which left a gap lower on the chart yesterday. The September Matif contract finished at its lowest level since March. Additionally, the overall weakness in the US corn and soybean markets also contributed to the pressure on wheat prices today.
• According to the USDA, 93% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested compared to 91% on average. As for spring wheat, good to excellent ratings declined from 74% to 72%. This is still well above last year’s 42% rating for this time frame. Additionally, 18% of spring wheat has been harvested, compared to 20% last year and 21% on average.
• The Egyptian tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat was a bit of a disappointment; in the end, they only purchased 280,000 mt for delivery in October. Of that total, 180,000 mt will be sourced from Ukraine with the remainder from Bulgaria.
• Below freezing temperatures have hit Argentina’s western crop growing regions over the past several days, exacerbating the drought already affecting the wheat crop. Compounding the issue, there is no rain expected in the forecast for the next seven days.
• Ukrainian consultancy group ASAP Agri has increased their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat exports to 14.6 mmt. This is a 12.3% jump from last month’s 13 mmt projection, and this is said to be a result of a bigger than expected harvest. They added that Ukraine may harvest 21.3 mmt of wheat this year, a 2 mmt increase from what was expected in July.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were able to find additional support Tuesday thanks to another great spot cheese trade. Fourth quarter future contracts all traded into new contract highs with November taking the charge, closing 13 cents higher to close at $21.13.
• Spot cheese has now tacked on nearly 11 cents to start the week and pushing to another new high for 2024 at $2.09/lb. Whey remains unchanged at $0.5625/lb.
• Class IV milk futures also closed in the green today gaining anywhere from 2-22 cents for the remaining 2024 contracts. The 2024 Class IV average now sits at $20.87.
• Spot butter lost 2 cents on the day to close at $3.12/lb while powder added 1.75 cents to go home at $1.2325/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill