TFM Midday Update 8-9-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday, and the December contract has posted a new contract low as trade anticipates a bearish reaction to Monday’s WASDE report. Estimates are calling for an increase in yields, but whether or not changes in acreage are expected is up for debate.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show a decrease in South American corn production, but the USDA has held estimates above the country’s own exchanges’ estimates. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has maintained their estimate for Argentinian production at 46.5 mmt, and harvest is estimated at 96.3% complete.
Yesterday, the export sales report said that 19.1 mb of old crop and 9.8 mb of new crop corn were sold for export last week. Mexico was named the largest buyer of old crop corn. Last week’s export shipments of 51.3 mb were 15.3 mb more than needed to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday after a slew of export sales were reported this morning. Trade is still expecting Monday’s WASDE report to hold higher yield estimates which could be bearish. Soybean meal is trading lower whole soybean oil is following crude oil higher.
This morning, the USDA reported multiple export sales. They reported that 132,000 mt of soybeans were sold to China for 24/25, 100,000 mt of soybean meal were sold to Colombia, and 212,000 mt of soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations.
In Argentina, workers at a soybean crush plant have extended their strike to a third day as a result of insufficient wages. Shipments have been delayed for the biggest soybean meal and oil exporter just as harvest is wrapping up.

Wheat is trading higher across the board at midday and has potentially put in a temporary bottom. Support has come from global weather issues and many countries making large tenders to buy wheat and shore up supplies.
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC reportedly purchased between 600,000 to 700,000 mt of milling wheat in an international tender, and Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries bought a total of 83,445 mt of food quality wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US in a regular tender.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed an increase of 10.1 million bushels in wheat sales for 24/25 and 4.1 mb for 25/26. This was down 4% from the previous week and 23% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales commitments are up 34% from a year ago.

Amanda Brill