TFM Morning Update 08-07-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower to start the day, but has moved higher from its earlier morning lows which saw prices fall near the 4 dollar mark again. Higher prices over the past two days provided a small opportunity for farmer selling.
Early estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday the 12th have the corn yield rising to 182.2 bpa which would compare to last months estimate of 181.0 bpa. Production is estimated at 151.124 mmt which would be slightly higher than last month’s 151 mmt.
Estimates for the Argentinian corn crop are expected to fall to 51.0 mmt which would compare to last months 52.0 mmt. Brazilian corn is estimated at 121.5 mmt which would be slightly lower than last month’s 122.0. These estimates remain well above CONAB’s.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the September contract making new lows and getting dangerously close to breaking the 10-dollar level. The pressure continues as a result of high yields expected. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday have the average corn yield improving to 52.5 bpa which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to be higher as well from last month.
In South America, estimates for Monday’s report show the Argentinian soy crop falling by just 0.1 to 49.6 mmt. Brazilian soybean production is expected to fall by 1.2 mmt to 151.8 mmt, still above CONAB’s estimate.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning despite the sell-off in both corn and soybeans. The US Dollar has fallen sharply since last week which may be benefitting wheat. There are also weather concerns in Europe, the western US, and the Canadian Prairies.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month.
Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.

Amanda Brill