TFM Midday Update 08-01-2024

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 6.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 28.0 mb of 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.8 mb fell below the 41.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 2.225 bb.
At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates untouched but did signal that there may be a rate cut in September. Nevertheless, equity markets are trading lower this morning which may be spilling some weakness over into the grain complex.
The US Dollar Index is rebounding at midday, currently up about 0.20 at 104.30, and could be adding pressure to the grain complex.
From a technical perspective, corn futures are back into oversold territory by some metrics. This could mean that a bottom is near. However, futures can become and remain oversold during a strong downtrend.

The USDA reported an increase of 13.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 23.2 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 20.8 mb exceeded the 16.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 1.700 bb.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
The forecast continues to show good rain potential over the next week or so for the eastern Corn Belt. This should keep yield prospects high but will also put weight on the shoulders of the market.
After a strong day yesterday and a positive start to this session, crude oil futures have turned negative and has taken soybean oil along for the ride, which is weighing on soybean futures.

The USDA reported an increase of 10.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 16.7 mb slightly exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
The weather forecast for the US northern Plains is mostly dry for the next week. This is not beneficial to the spring wheat crop, but the market does not seem to be responding much, as Minneapolis futures are mixed this morning.
Though it has been reported that their prices have firmed up recently, Russia continues to dominate the world wheat export front.
After a strong close yesterday, Matif wheat futures are down this morning, despite the worst-looking French crop in several years. This weakness is spilling into the US market.

Brandon Doherty