TFM Morning Update 07-24-2024

CORN

Corn is trading near unchanged to start the day after rallying higher both days so far this week. Continuous corn futures are flirting with the 20-day moving average currently, a level corn has not closed above since June 13th.
Much above normal temperatures are expected for the entire Corn Belt as we end July and head into August. Below normal rainfall is forecast to accompany the heat in areas west of the Mississippi River.
SovEcon cut its estimate for Russian corn production to 13.4 mmt from 14.6 mmt in June. The estimate was lowered due to hot weather which reportedly caused significant damage to late planted crops. Cuts have also been made to neighboring Ukraine’s corn crop recently.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning after their nearly 40-cent rally to start the week. Soybeans have managed to add back some weather premium so far this week with the somewhat threatening U.S. forecast to start the important month of August for soybean production.
Prospects for continued soybean export sales out of the U.S. are strong as FOB prices for September through December are now cheaper in the U.S. than out of Brazil.
Brazilian soybean meal exports are estimated to reach 2.4 mmt in July according to Anec, which would be a monthly record high if the volume is confirmed by the end of the month. Anec said the climate favored the shipping of products through ports, if confirmed this soybean meal export volume would be around 11% higher than July of 2023.

Wheat futures are mixed Wednesday morning with Chicago futures higher while KC and Spring wheat futures are trading slightly lower.
Spring wheat yields in the top US growing state of North Dakota were about equal to last year in day one of the annual Wheat Quality Council’s three-day crop tour. Fundal disease pressure, however, limited potential in many fields. Results of the entire tour will be available Thursday.
European wheat producing areas are expected to pick up more unneeded rainfall over the coming week, this will likely only add to harvest delays and quality concerns.

Keegan Madigan