TFM Midday Update 7-18-2024

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 17.2 mb of corn export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 19.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 43.5 mb exceeded the 42.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 2.225 bb.
Ethanol production at 1.106 million barrels per day was close to a record, but stocks still declined slightly, implying strong ethanol demand.
Weather for most of the Midwest remains non-threatening and favorable for crop development. Unless this shifts rather quickly, it will be difficult to sustain any rallies.
US corn is said to be at an 18 – 20 cent discount to Brazil offers on a FOB basis, which in theory should lead to more US exports. It was reported that Taiwan purchased 65,000 mt of US corn yesterday.

The USDA reported an increase of 13.2 mb of soybean export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 13.8 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.4 mb fell below the 14.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 1.700 bb.
This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of 510,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. In addition, 150,000 mt of soybean meal were also sold to unknown for 24/25.
There has been talk that the national soybean yield could be a record 53 bpa due to generally advantageous weather and growing conditions. This may keep a lid on any rallies, despite the current technically oversold conditions.

The USDA reported an increase of 21.3 mb of wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year. Shipments last week at 23.2 mb exceeded the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA export goal of 825 mb.
Wheat futures are mixed amongst the three categories at midday; Chicago is down but Minneapolis and Kansas City are up. Matif wheat is not lending any support, with those contracts in negative territory at the time of writing, and a chart gap remaining above the market.
Though it is moving higher at midday, the US Dollar Index has been in a big picture downtrend. With talk that the Fed may issue two rate cuts this year, it could keep pressure on the Dollar which would be bullish for wheat and commodities in general.
Algeria is said to have purchased 750,000 to 800,000 mt of milling wheat on Wednesday. However, it is reportedly being fulfilled entirely by the Black Sea.

Brandon Doherty