TFM Midday Update 07-10-2024

CORN

Corn is mixed at midday with the front month trading slightly higher while the deferred contracts trade lower. Hurricane Beryl brought significant rains across the dry eastern Corn Belt yesterday with amounts up to two inches, and showers are still falling further east today.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report for ethanol see production lower than last week at 1.049m barrels per day and average stocks estimates at 23.604m bbl which would compare to 23.594 million a week ago. Ethanol margins have been improving, and an average plant in the Midwest is estimated to have margins of 35 to 40 cents a gallon.
Funds have been aggressively selling across the ag complex and are estimated to be net short 350,000 contracts of corn which would be a new record net short position taking out February’s 340,000 net short.

Soybeans are trading lower today as futures continue to slide due to favorable weather conditions. Today, futures are bear spread in a reversal from the previous trend in which the August contract has performed better than the new crop contracts with strong demand for cash soybeans.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during MY 24/25. This was the first sale of new crop soybeans to China so far this year.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today with KC wheat leading the way down. After rallying a month ago due to Russian production concerns, prices have slid due to harvest pressure, higher than expected Russian production estimates, and poor export demand.
In Europe, weather is causing production problems for the wheat crop, with Ukraine and Russia expected to produce less than last year as well. Although, Russia is still expected to dominate the global export market as they continue to offer the cheapest wheat.
As of July 2, funds were sellers of 3,487 contracts of Chicago wheat bringing their net short position to 73,974 contracts, and were sellers of 6,031 contracts of KC wheat bringing that short position to 43,103 contracts.

Amanda Brill