TFM Midday Update 07-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday after yesterday’s sharp selloff and is likely getting most of its support from the wheat market, which is higher as well. Today’s price action is likely some correction after yesterday’s move lower as fundamentals have been mostly bearish.
While weather has been mostly favorable, Minnesota and Wisconsin are dealing with surplus topsoil moisture with continued rain in the forecast. For the eastern Corn Belt, tropical storm Beryl is bringing much needed rain that should linger this week.
Yesterday’s report showed the good to excellent rating in corn increasing by 1 point to 68% which compares to 55% at this time a year ago. 24% of the crop is silking, which compares to 11% last week and 18% last year, with 3% in the dough stage, which is above the 2% last year at this time.

Soybeans are lower at midday as they continue to slide with the September and November contracts making new contract lows. Export demand has been lacking, while domestic demand has been firm which has lent support to the August contract as processors look to buy cash soybeans. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating rising by one point to 68%, while the poor to very poor rating fell to 8%. Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio improved the most while Mississippi, North Carolina, and North Dakota declined.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

All three wheat classes are trading higher today despite an improvement in crop ratings and the ongoing winter wheat harvest. Prices seem to be trying to find stability after the sharp selloff over the past month. Concerns that world supplies may be lower for 24/25 could add support.
In Europe, weather is causing production problems for the wheat crop, and Ukraine and Russia are expected to produce less than last year as well. Russia is still expected to dominate the global export market as they continue to offer the cheapest wheat.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat at 63% harvested, which compares to 54% a week ago and the average of 52%. Spring wheat saw an improvement in good to excellent ratings up to 75%, which compares to 72% last week and just 47% last year. 59% of the crop is headed which compares to 38% a week ago and the average of 60%.

Amanda Brill