TFM Midday Update 6-24-2024

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower at midday following heavy rains throughout the Corn Belt and flooding in the northwestern Belt. This would be the third consecutive day of lower prices, and earlier today, December futures took out the February lows and traded at the lowest levels since September of 2021.
Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report, and most trade estimates are calling for a reduction in the good to excellent ratings by another 2 to 5 percentage points following last week’s hot and dry conditions.
CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later today, but it is expected that funds will have added to their net short positions which was over 200,000 contracts last week. The trend continues lower as South American harvest progresses and US weather has rain in the forecast.

Soybeans are mixed at midday with the front months slightly higher but new crop contracts trading lower as prices continue to slide falling to their lowest levels since 2021 in the November contract. While forecasts are expected to be hot, there has been enough rain that has fallen and enough in the forecast to suppress prices.
Soybean meal is trading slightly higher while soybean oil is lower, and it is expected that today’s CFTC report will show that funds have been adding to their short positions in the complex.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 228,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2024/2025 marketing year.

All three wheat classes are trading lower today as prices continue to slide from the May highs with the July contract in Chicago wheat now $1.71 below the high made on the 28th. Prices are now sitting around the lower end of trade from earlier this year.
World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, and Australia receiving more rain than expected.
Since the end of May, Paris milling wheat futures have lost approximately 45 Euros per ton which is equivalent to about $1.20 per bushel. The market is currently mixed but is attempting to find support at some key moving averages. A rebound could offer support to the US market.

Amanda Brill