CORN
- Localized flooding is likely to affect areas of Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas, with 3-5 more inches of rain expected over the next few days. Meanwhile, the eastern corn belt is expected to see temperatures in the 90s over the next couple weeks with more limited rainfall.
- The European weather model next week has very little humidity relative to the American model. This suggests that there may not be as much moisture in the air for rainfall as the American model predicts.
- Brazil’s July corn FOB export values are said to be more than a 10-cent premium to US FOB values, which may help the export side of things.
SOYBEANS
- Unconfirmed rumors on Tuesday that China may have bought US soybeans, as well as a friendly NOPA report helped in the rally that day. But so far, those gains are being given back today, potentially on forecasts for limited rainfall in the eastern Midwest.
- Crude oil is trading higher this morning, with the July contract above $82 per barrel for the first time since the end of April. This is reportedly tied to a Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea. Higher crude prices should be supportive for biofuel usage.
- ABIOVE, a Brazilian oilseed group, increased their estimate of Brazilian soybean production to 152.5 mmt, an increase of 1.4 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a 153 mmt figure. This may be adding some bearish pressure to the US market today.
WHEAT
- Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again this morning, with losses of around 4 euros per mt, putting in new six-week lows. This falling market has been adding weight on the shoulders of the US market.
- Europe and Ukraine are reportedly dropping their wheat prices to try to stimulate demand, and are also said to now be cheaper than Russian wheat.
- US wheat futures are very technically oversold; on a range of 0%-100%, July Chicago daily stochastics are around 6%. This technical indicator suggests that the market is due for a correction to the upside. However, this is just one metric, and it should be noted that a market can remain oversold for a long time period during a strong downtrend.
Author
Brandon Doherty