TFM Morning Update 06-20-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after the markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday. December corn has been relatively rangebound since the beginning of the month, but better than expected weather forecasts are pressuring markets.
In the eastern Corn Belt, temperatures are expected to be very hot which will make rainfall critical. There were some light showers yesterday through Illinois and Indiana, but more rain is expected to fall over a wider area this weekend.
Corn demand has been relatively strong thanks to Mexico who has been the primary buyer of US corn. Shipments are up 23% in 23/24 from the previous year, and ethanol production is up as well by 4%.

Soybeans continue to slide lower this morning despite a large NOPA crush number that was higher than the average trade estimates, and futures are now just 5 cents away from the low posted in February of this year. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is trading higher.
Chinese imports of soybeans from the US jumped in May and were up 156% from the same period a year ago. China purchased 1.27 mmt of soybeans from the US as Brazilian supplies shrink due to the flooding in the southern region of the country.
In Brazil, soybean planted acres are expected to continue to increase each year to contribute to biofuel demand rather than Chinese exports. Andre Nassar, who is the head of the Brazilian soybean crushers lobby, believes that Brazilian soybean production could reach 170 mmt in the new season with favorable weather.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. July Chicago wheat futures are trading $1.45 below last month’s high as trade shrugs off concerns about a dip in Russian production.
Ukrainian grain exports for the 23/24 July-June marketing season increased to 49.3 mmt from 47.5 mmt a year earlier. Of that number, wheat made up 18.1 mmt of wheat.
In Russia, SovEcon has revised wheat production lower again at 127.4 mmt which would compare to 144.9 mmt the previous year. This production decrease may be priced in at this point considering that there were reports of dry weather and frosts causing problems months ago.

Amanda Brill