TFM Midday Update 06-06-2024

CORN

Corn is finally trading higher today after posting seven consecutively lower closes with the funds likely adding over 50,000 short contracts during that timeframe. Today’s move could be due to some short covering by the funds, but there are also some prevent plant concerns in corn.
Weather premium could be getting factored in as well, but it may be a bit early. The forecast for this month is mostly dry, but many fields need the dryness after such a wet spring. In addition, the second week of June is expected to be hot and wet, which could be beneficial to crops.
As of May 30, the USDA reported an increase of 46.5 mb of corn export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 4.5 mb for 24/25. This was on the higher range of estimates, and last week’s export shipments of 58.6 mb were well above the 38.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Saudi Arabia.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher today along with corn, and the July futures are pressing right up against the 100-day moving average which could be resistance at 1200. Support is mainly coming from soybean oil which is higher thanks to gains in palm oil. Soybean meal is slightly higher as well.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 7.0 mb of soybean sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower range of trade expectations and puts soybean sales down 15% from the previous year.
Last week’s soybean export shipments of 14.3 mb were above the 12.9 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels in 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and Turkey.

All three wheat classes are trading higher today and are led by KC wheat despite poor export sales. The spread between December Chicago wheat and December corn has been at its highest level since the war began in Ukraine but has begun to narrow in the last week as wheat prices retreat.
Today’s export sales report was disappointing for wheat with the USDA reporting net cancellations of 8.4 million bushels in 23/24 and an increase of 22.7 mb for 24/25.
Last week’s export shipments of 16.5 mb were below the 28.3 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate of 720 mb. Primary destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Amanda Brill