TFM Midday Update 5-28-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower at midday despite gains in the wheat complex and continued rainfall in the Midwest which is delaying planting progress and has caused flooding in parts of the eastern Corn Belt.
This morning, private exporters reported to the US Department of Agriculture export sales of 215,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 165,000 tons is for delivery during the 23/24 marketing year and the remaining 50,000 is for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year.
The Brazilian corn crop is being revised lower due to recent heat and dryness. Consultancy Ag Rural is estimating Brazilian corn production at 118.4 mmt and some other firms closer to 112 mmt. The USDA’s last estimate is much higher at 122 mmt.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday with significant pressure from soybean meal with July meal currently down 2.50% while soybean oil trades higher. The move lower today comes after last week when soybeans reached their highest prices since January and soybean meal reached its highest prices of the year.
The Crop Progress Report will be released later today, and expectations are for soybean plantings to be 70% complete, which would be slightly above the 5-year average. Weather is forecast to be dry into Friday before more rains are expected.
Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop has been revised lower by Datagro citing a sharp drop in average yields. On Friday, the consultancy lowered its estimate to 147.57 mmt from a recent guess of 147.96. This is well below the USDA’s estimate and cites a 10.8% drop in national yields.

All three classes of wheat are trading higher at midday with KC leading the way up. Support is mainly coming from dry conditions and frost in Russia and the Black Sea region.
The Russian Grain Union president has reportedly said that between 3.7 to 4.9 million acres of wheat may have been damaged by the recent weather event, and IKAR has lowered wheat production estimates by 2 mmt to 81.5 mmt. The USDA’s last estimate was 88 mmt.
As of Tuesday, May 21, funds reportedly bought back 3,658 contracts of Chicago wheat which leaves them with a net short position of 24,593 contracts. Funds have bought back a significant amount of wheat contracts over the past few months.

Amanda Brill