TFM Morning Update 05-23-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as wet forecasts continue to support the market. Some acres yet to be planted may face the crop insurance planting deadline, and a higher number of prevent plant acres this year is possible.
In Brazil, private consulting firm Agroconsult has revised its estimate for Brazilian second crop corn lower at 96.7 mmt which would be down 10.5% from a year ago. They are estimating yields to be down by 7% and lower acreage as well.
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, US ethanol stocks fell by 1.1% to 24.212M Bbl while analysts were expecting 24.399m. Plant production was seen at 1.019m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.017m.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning with the July contract above the $12.50 mark and just 5 cents off the high earlier this month. Soybeans are seeing support from higher soybean meal and oil along with wet conditions that continue to support both corn and soybeans.
Another source of support is that US soybeans are now competitive compared to Brazil and Argentina for Chinese purchases as Brazilian basis levels move higher. China has purchased two cargoes of US soybeans and it is rumored that they may have purchased more.
The Argentinian soybean harvest is facing some delays due to cold conditions, and production estimates have been lowered slightly as a result. Estimates have production about 1 mmt lower, and estimated planted acreage is at 16.9 million hectares which compares to a previous estimate of 17.3 million.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way higher. All three classes made new highs for the year yesterday which likely attracted some selling pressure.
The crop tour in Illinois has seen soft red winter wheat yields at a record 104.8 bpa which is well above last year’s tour findings of 97.1 bpa. The tour surveyed 58 fields on Tuesday in the southern part of Illinois.
Overall, this large rally in wheat has come from concerns over global weather and specifically Russia and the Black Sea region which has been plagued with unseasonable frosts. The extent of the damage is unknown but is expected to be significant.

Amanda Brill