TFM Morning Update 05-14-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after Monday afternoon’s crop progress data and a precipitation outlook that points towards a continued wet Corn Belt.
The US corn crop was estimated to be 49% planted as of Sunday, May 12th, this was a 13% jump from the week prior but is 5% behind the five-year average and 11% behind last year’s pace.
Planting progress in Illinois advanced just 10% last week to come in at 42% overall, this is well behind the five-year average of 56%. Planting is also behind schedule in Iowa where 57% was planted as of Sunday, 13% behind the five-year average. Showers moved through Illinois and Iowa to start the week with more moisture forecasted over the coming week.
The US corn crop was 23% emerged as of Sunday, May 12th, this was an 11% jump from last week and is 2% ahead of the five-year average.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from sharply lower soybean oil futures.
The US soybean crop was estimated to be 35% planted as of Sunday, May 12th, this was 10% higher than the last week and 1% ahead of the five-year average.
The US soybean crop was 16% emerged as of Sunday, May 12th, this is 6% ahead of the five-year average and 1% behind this same week last year.
Soybean oil has rallied recently on rumors that the Biden administration might include used cooking oil in a new list of proposed Chinese tariffs. The list released late Monday did not include the used cooking oil from China that has been used by the renewable diesel industry over US soybean oil as of late.

All three wheat classes are trading near unchanged this morning after Monday’s sharp rally in prices.
Wheat continues to find support from worries of production losses in Russia and the Black Sea region as well as the projection for world wheat supplies among major exporting countries to come in at 17-year lows in 2024/25 according to the USDA’s May WASDE.
50% of the US winter wheat crop was in good to excellent condition as of Sunday, May 12th, this was equal to last week’s rating but still well ahead of last year when just 29% of the crop was rated in the same category.
61% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, May 12th, according to the USDA. This was up 14% from last week and 15% ahead of the five-year average.

Keegan Madigan