CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market traded in a tight 3 ¼ cent range for most of the day after giving up overnight gains as it consolidated ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report. Although July corn closed towards the lower end of its range, it held Monday’s low and the 20-day moving average.
• The USDA released its export sales report for the week ending May 2. Corn export sales came in as expected at 35 million bushels for the 23/24 marketing year, and 1.93 mb for the 24/25 new crop. There was also a flash sale reported, totaling 5.2 million bushels (132,080 mt) of corn to Mexico, 2.4 mb (60,960 mt) for the 23/24 marketing year and 2.8 mb (71,120 mt) for 24/25.
• Tomorrow, the USDA will release its May WASDE report, which will also be the first look at this year’s 24/25 production. The average trade guess for 23/24 US old crop corn ending stocks is 2.094 billion bushels, 28 mb less than April’s estimate. Whereas US 24/25 new crop corn ending stocks are estimated to come in at 2.282 bb, using a 180.7 bpa yield. The trade will also be watching to see how much of a reduction the USDA makes to its South American estimates, which currently stand at 124 mmt and 55 mmt respectively for Brazil and Argentina.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange, in its April report released on Wednesday, adjusted the estimated Argentine corn crop downward to 47.5 mmt from March’s estimate of 50.5 mmt. This adjustment suggests a significant shift due to the leaf hopper infestation.
• Following Friday’s USDA report, the planting pace will return to the forefront of the market’s focus. Planting may continue to face challenges as another weather system moves across the Corn Belt. While the forecast indicates a break in the weather in the middle of the month, expectations point to a warm and wetter pattern persisting into the end of May.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed sharply lower for the second consecutive day with pressure from lower soybean meal and oil, with bean oil posting more significant losses. July soybeans closed below the 100-day moving average while the November contract closed above it. There has likely been farmer selling following the recent rally along with funds squaring positions ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
• Early trade estimates for Friday’s USDA report have the 23/24 soybean ending stocks relatively unchanged, and the ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 439 mb, using a soybean yield of 52.0 bpa. The Argentinian bean crop is expected to be revised lower to 49.7 mmt from 50 mmt, and Brazil’s production is expected to be lowered to 152.5 mmt from 155 mmt last month.
• In Brazil, there remain large issues regarding the soybeans which have not been harvested and remain in the fields due to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. The extent of the damage is yet unknown, but that state is a key exporter of soybeans and could impact exports to Argentina and therefore Argentinian meal exports.
• Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 15.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and 0.2 mb for 24/25. This was within the average range of trade estimates and puts total sales down 17% from a year ago. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 12.5 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to China, Egypt, and Mexico.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed modestly higher in all three categories, stopping the bleeding of the last couple days. Support came from the US Dollar Index turning negative, as well as a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. Both the Matif and US futures were likely responding to talk that the freeze damage in Russia may have caused more harm to their wheat than originally thought. Some estimates of the Russian crop have now fallen below 90 mmt, compared to 93 mmt recently.
• The USDA reported an increase of only 1.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 14.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 12.4 mb fell below the 13.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb. Export shipments now total 627 mb, which is up 2% from last year.
• The average pre-report estimate for US 23/24 wheat carryout is pegged at 689 mb, compared to 698 in April. World ending stocks for 23/24 wheat are expected to come in at 258.1 mmt, down from 258.3 in April. The average guess for US 24/25 carryout is 786 mb, with the world 24/25 ending stocks estimate at 256.9 mmt.
• US 24/25 all wheat production is anticipated on tomorrow’s report at 1.889 bb vs 1.812 in 22/23. Of that total, winter wheat in particular is expected at 1.305 bb vs 1.248.
• According to the USDA, about 28% of the US winter wheat crop is still experiencing drought conditions as of May 7, unchanged from the prior week. Additionally, recent rains have drastically reduced the spring wheat area in drought, which has declined from 27% to 15% for the same time period.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• No Dairy Content Today

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Author

Brandon Doherty