TFM Midday Update 05-02-2024

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 29.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 1.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 54.4 mb far surpassed the 39.0 mb needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.1 bb for 23/24.
Yesterday the EPA and USDA did announce an updated GREET model, which allows corn-based ethanol to qualify for tax credits in the making of sustainable aviation fuel. However, producers must show that the corn was produced in an eco-friendly manner.
According to the USDA, corn use in the month of March for the production of ethanol reached 469 mb. This was above expectations and also the highest for any month in over two years.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday afternoon. While they are at a 23-year high, Chairman Powell indicated rate hikes are not anticipated and cuts could still come later this year.

Soybeans are trading sharply higher today led by large gains in soybean meal which is up nearly 3% on the day. July soybeans are right at resistance at their 50-day moving average, and a close above that level could potentially see prices rallying further.
The USDA reported an increase of 15.2 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 9.9 mb fell below the 12.8 mb needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.7 bb for 23/24.
Southern Brazil is experiencing heavy rains, which are causing delays to soybean harvest as areas have become waterlogged. An estimated 4-6 mmt are sitting in fields in Rio Grande do Sul.
March census crush reported by US NASS yesterday afternoon came in at a record high for the month of March at 203.73 mb. While this was a new record, still showing strong domestic demand, the number was below the range of estimates. Bean oil stocks for the month of March were reported at 2.369 billion pounds, though lower than year-ago levels, they were higher than trade expectations and are likely weighing on bean oil prices.

The USDA reported a decrease of 0.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 15.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 18.7 mb exceeded the 16.4 mb needed per week to reach the export goal of 710 mb for 23/24.
Rain totals so far this week in southern Russia have been disappointing, and a drier trend may be coming back. This may provide some support to wheat futures. The world has been heavily reliant on Russian wheat supplies, so the prospect of smaller production may be causing short covering.
In India, wheat stocks are reportedly much lower than a year ago, and hot and dry forecasts over the next month could threaten this year’s wheat production. At the moment, global weather is an issue that is affecting wheat in many different areas.

Amanda Brill