CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure returned to the corn market to start the week. Weakness was seen throughout the entire grain complex led lower by double-digit losses in the soybean market as the price move gave back some of Friday’s gains.
• Weather forecasts and the planting pace will now be the focus of the corn market. Expectations are for temperatures to stay above normal into the end of April, but precipitation looks to stay active during this time window. Overall, the current weather forecast should allow for a decent planting pace.
• USDA crop progress will be released on Monday afternoon. Last week, corn planting was 3% complete versus a 5-year average of 2%. Planting pace should look to make gains in the weeks ahead.
• Weekly export inspections for corn totaled 1.33 MMT (52.4 mb), which was within market expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year are now 1.129 billion bushels, up 34% from last year.
• The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to Mexico. Mexico purchased 165,000 MT of corn, which was split with 135,000 MT for this marketing year and 30,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed significantly lower to start the week, with losses in the front month outweighing those in the new crop months. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower as well, but the larger losses were in soybean meal. Crude oil was lower today despite an escalation in the Middle East with Iran attacking Israel, and soybean oil followed crude lower.
• The NOPA crush report was released today and showed 196.406 million bushels of soybeans crushed in March. This was slightly below expectations, which were around 197 mb, but were still a record high for March. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.851B/lbs, which was higher than the expectations of 1.79.
• Today’s weekly inspections report showed soybean inspections totaling 15.9 mb for the week ending April 11. Total inspections are now at 1.398 bb for 23/24 and are down 18% from the previous year. Last week, two flash sales were announced which was encouraging given the lack of sales recently.
• In Brazil, harvest is continuing at a good clip with the most recent progress called at 85.13% complete, which compares to 86.29% at this time a year ago. Rains had previously delayed some progress but have dried up now. Despite harvest, premiums in Brazil have been rising due to a lack of farmer selling.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat finished with losses across the board. The US Dollar Index did make a new near-term high today, which is not helping the grain complex. The fact that Matif wheat futures closed mixed to lower was also unhelpful.
• Weekly wheat inspections were decent at 20.3 mb, and this brings the 23/24 inspections total to 585 mb. However, inspections are running below the USDA’s estimated pace, and they are still projecting 710 mb of export (which was unchanged in last week’s report).
• April Russian wheat exports are expected to be record large at 4.4 mmt. March was also a record, with 4.8 mmt exported. And while Russia’s FOB values are said to still be on the rise, their export numbers do not bode well for the US market.
• Northern Europe has seen a wet spring, which is affecting crop development of important crops, including barley and wheat. Since record keeping started in 1958, this was the fifth most wet March on the books for France. Rainfall over the winter was also unusually high.
• The nation of Kazakhstan has reportedly extended their wheat import ban for an additional six months, according to their ag ministry. This is an effort to prevent the domestic market from declining, with the ministry stating that illegal wheat imports had previously caused internal prices to fall by more than 50%. Additionally, they claim that up to 2 mmt of wheat used to be illegally imported each year.
• According to the Ukrainian ag ministry, their grain exports have fallen 4% year on year, since the season began on July 1. However, wheat in particular saw a 9% year on year increase to 14.7 mmt. And so far for the month of April, wheat exports have reached 386,000 mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures jumped higher on Monday from a solid day of bidding in the cheese trade. Contracts were up as much as 47c.
• Nearby cheese futures were up sharply, with the May ’24 contract hitting its best price since March 5th.
• May Class IV milk futures saw heavy volume, with 50 contracts traded and the price closing 7c higher to $21.08.
• Each Class IV contract from April ’24 through March ’25 is now over the $20.00 threshold.
• Butter futures were mixed on a quiet spot trade.

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Author

Brandon Doherty