TFM Morning Update 04-16-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower again this morning but again has remained in a very tight range over the past two months. The dollar has been trending higher over the past week which may be putting some pressure on commodities.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed that 6% of US corn is planted so far which compares with 7% expected and 5% for the 5-year average. The western Corn Belt is likely getting an earlier start while the central belt is getting too much rain.
The bullish factor lately has been the export inspections in corn which have been running above the USDA’s estimated pace, but the slight uptick in sales are small compared to the very large ending stocks number that trade is facing.

Soybeans are trading a bit lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex while soybean meal is higher and soybean oil trades lower. The US Dollar being higher has pressured prices, but weakness in the Brazilian real is making the US even less competitive.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed soybean planting at 3% complete in the US which is up from the trade guess at 2% and also up from the 5-year average of 1%. The 7-day forecast features a good amount of rain for eastern Texas as well as central Midwest.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is now estimated to be around 85% complete, but there is still disagreement between the USDA and CONAB about the size of the crop with the USDA’s estimate nearly 10 mmt larger. Along with the large South American crop headed to markets, the US ending stocks were also revised to be higher.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat trades slightly higher. The 7-day forecast features rain for the dry areas in Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma which could pressure winter wheat.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that good to excellent ratings for winter wheat decreased by 1% to 55%, but this is still above the 27% rating last year. 7% of the spring wheat crop is reported to be planted which compares to 3% last week.
Yesterday’s export inspections for wheat were better than the highest range of trade guesses at 20.3 mb inspected. This was above the 17.8 mb needed each week to hit the USDA’s new estimate.

Amanda Brill