TFM Morning Update 04-11-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher ahead of today’s WASDE report which will be released at 11am central time. Corn has remained largely rangebound over the past month with volatility really only occurring after the acreage report which showed a 2 ma decrease in expected corn acres.
The USDA’s projection for South American corn production is expected to drop a little over 2 mmt for Brazil to 121.75 from the March estimate of 124 mmt, while Argentina’s production is also expected to drop slightly to 55.6 mmt from 56 mmt.
This morning, the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina suggested that corn production in the country would likely decline after what started as a promising crop. There has been a disease carried by small grasshoppers that are infecting the crop.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day and have been trending lower since mid-March. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil continues to follow the moves in palm oil and is lower this morning.
In today’s WASDE report, trade will be looking closely at the USDA’s projection for Brazilian soybean production. Their guess last month was at 156 mmt which is in stark contrast to CONAB’s estimate which was last estimated at 146.9 mmt. Both agencies will update their estimates today.
Today’s export sales report is expected to be soft for soybeans with estimates ranging between 200k and 650k tons with an average guess of 431k tons. There was a flash sale reported last week which should show up in today’s numbers.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. Weather has been a concern for the winter wheat crop and has generally lent support to the futures. Trade does not seem to be anticipating any major surprises in today’s WASDE report.
In today’s USDA report, the trade is looking for about a 17 mb increase to 23/24 US wheat ending stocks to 690 mb from last month’s forecast of 673 mb, likely on lower exports. World ending stocks are expected to increase slightly.
Wheat exports have been very slow as the US has been unable to compete with cheap Russian and Ukrainian offers. In today’s export sales report, expectations are between 0 and 550k tons with an average guess of 294k tons.

Amanda Brill