TFM Midday Update 4-9-2024

CORN

According to the USDA, 3% of the nation’s corn crop is now planted. This is in line with last year and just above the average of 2%.
Corn inspections yesterday at 55.9 mb surpassed the 49.1 mb pace necessary to reach the USDA’s estimate. Inspections are running 35.2% above last year, whereas the USDA is looking for a 26% increase.
South American weather is mostly favorable and some of the drier areas including Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul are expected to see a wetter pattern by mid-month. Additionally, good rains in the northern areas should benefit the safrinha crop.

USDA reported another private export sale for 124,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybean meal is under pressure this morning, perhaps in anticipation of competition from Argentina, the number one meal exporter, which is expected to have a crop double the size of last year.
Private estimates and CONAB have the Brazilian soybean production estimates 7-10 mmt under the USDA’s current estimate. With a WASDE report this Thursday, it is possible that the USDA will lower their number.

The USDA reported that the condition of winter wheat remained unchanged from last week at 56% good to excellent, surpassing expectations. These current conditions mark the best performance since 2020 at this stage of the growing season.
The USDA also said that spring wheat planting is 3% complete, which is in line with the average, but ahead of last year’s 1% at this time.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat FOB values have risen to $210 per mt, however this remains the world’s cheapest offer and this continues to limit the upside for US futures.

Brandon Doherty