TFM Morning Update 03-05-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s gains, but prices have rebounded significantly off last Monday’s contract low which saw May down to $4.08-3/4.
Early estimates for Friday’s WASDE report show a slight decrease in US corn ending stocks, a decrease in world ending stocks, and nearly unchanged to slightly higher South American corn production.
In Brazil, safrinha corn planting is now 86% complete which compares to 73% the previous week and 70% a year ago at this time. The summer corn harvest is now 49% complete compared to 37% a year ago at this time.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally was promptly taken as a selling opportunity. Brazil’s ongoing harvest and lagging export demand have made it difficult for prices to move higher.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 48% complete which compares to 40% a week earlier and 43% the previous year. Cash prices in the country have recently begun to rise which has brought about more farmer selling.
Yesterday, a flash sale of soybean cake and meal was reported to unknown, and export inspections came in within expectations at 1,021k tons compared to 1,059k tons a week ago.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower and nearing its contract lows. This comes as wheat exports reach their lowest levels in 50 years as Russia continues to offer cheaper wheat.
Friday’s WASDE report will likely make adjustments to its export estimate due to the lack of demand. Analysts are estimating that the USDA may slightly reduce its last estimate of 725 mb.
Winter wheat conditions have been downgraded but are still largely above average for this time of year. The good to excellent rating in Kansas fell to 53% from 57%, in Oklahoma it fell to 65% from 70%, and in Texas it fell to 43% from 46%.

Amanda Brill