TFM Midday Update 02-09-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today following a bearish USDA report yesterday. March corn is on track for a loss on the week.
Yesterday, private exporters reported a sale of 200,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia for the 23/24 marketing year. For now, US corn is relatively competitive globally.
The Argentinian corn crop was slightly damaged by the recent hot and dry spell, but upcoming rains are expected to reactivate the crop.
Yesterday, the USDA estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 124 mmt and the Argentinian crop at 55 mmt. CONAB released numbers for Brazilian corn far lower than the USDA at 114 mmt.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s bearish USDA report. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower, while crude oil is higher.
Yesterday, soybeans closed higher as traders were mixed as they weighed USDA production estimates for Brazil against the much lower CONAB estimates. Historically, the USDA is typically more accurate.
At this point, March and November soybeans are set to post a loss on the week, and funds were sellers of an estimated 1,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. There has been little motivation for funds to stop selling grains.
In yesterday’s USDA report, export demand was reduced by 35 mb, which points to poor export demand. Domestic demand has been solid, but exports are below last year’s pace.

The wheat complex is trading mostly higher today, with Chicago leading the way. Overall, wheat remains in a very tight trading range.
March Chicago wheat is on track for a slight gain on the week at this point, but yesterday, non-commercials were estimated to have sold 6,000 contracts of wheat adding to their short position.
The Indian government announced that it would reduce the stock limits of wheat for traders and large chain retailers to avoid an artificial scarcity of wheat.
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed domestic wheat demand in the US falling, which was a surprise. This caused ending stocks to increase by 10 mb.

Amanda Brill